The Vaccine Discussion Thread

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National guard stood up testing here when we had a surge during the summer. The site I went to (LSU campus) was extremely well organized and manned. We were tested there right before the program was ended. Vaccines are more involved than testing but my point is I feel the National guard would be a good option.
 
This morning Moderna announced a preliminary look at their data suggest their vaccine is 94.5% effective:

https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coron...effective-according-to-company-data-1.5190419
They are on track to produce 20 million doses by end of 2020 and 500 million to 1 billion in 2021: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/18/mod...doses-of-coronavirus-vaccine-by-2020-end.html

Their vaccine requires -20 (I think C) and can be kept in normal fridge for 30 days.

wow!!! that's fantastic!!! and isn't moderna a one dose vaccine vs pfizer's 2 doses?
and storage of the moderna vaccine is much easier than that for pfizer....
things are looking up!!

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wow!!! that's fantastic!!! and isn't moderna a one dose vaccine vs pfizer's 2 doses?

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No, this is two doses as well. So when reading these numbers, make sure to halve them when thinking about how many people will get the vaccine (i.e. 20 million doses = 10 million vaccinated Americans).
 
No, this is two doses as well. So when reading these numbers, make sure to halve them when thinking about how many people will get the vaccine (i.e. 20 million doses = 10 million vaccinated Americans).


it's interesting how the paragraph on number of doses they'll have available in 2020 is worded.
It says pfizer will have 50 million doses worldwide in 2020 and that Moderna will have 20 million doses earmarked for the US available by the end of 2020.
So does that mean that moderna will have more than that by the end of 2020, with some of it going elsewhere?

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it's interesting how the paragraph on number of doses they'll have available in 2020 is worded.
It says pfizer will have 50 million doses worldwide in 2020 and that Moderna will have 20 million doses earmarked for the US available by the end of 2020.
So does that mean that moderna will have more than that by the end of 2020, with some of it going elsewhere?

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Everything I have seen in media and press releases says Moderns will have 20 million doses for 2020.

The vaccine "was co-developed by Moderna and investigators from NIAID’s Vaccine Research Center". I would wonder if as part of their agreement with NIAID the first batch of doses [ie that 20 million, possibly more] are therefore for the USA ?

Also "BARDA is supporting the continued research and development of mRNA-1273 with $955 million in federal funding under Contract no. 75A50120C00034. BARDA is reimbursing Moderna for 100 percent of the allowable costs incurred by the company for conducting the program described in the BARDA contract. The U.S. government has committed up to $1.525 billion to purchase supply of mRNA-1273 under U.S. Department of Defense Contract No. W911QY-20-C-0100. " BARDA = Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (BARDA), part of the HHS Office of the Assistant Secretary for Preparedness and Response.

source: https://investors.modernatx.com/new...es-enrollment-phase-3-cove-study-mrna-vaccine
 
it's interesting how the paragraph on number of doses they'll have available in 2020 is worded.
It says pfizer will have 50 million doses worldwide in 2020 and that Moderna will have 20 million doses earmarked for the US available by the end of 2020.
So does that mean that moderna will have more than that by the end of 2020, with some of it going elsewhere?

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Everything I have seen in media and press releases says Moderns will have 20 million doses for 2020.

The vaccine "was co-developed by Moderna and investigators from NIAID’s Vaccine Research Center". I would wonder if as part of their agreement with NIAID the first batch of doses [ie that 20 million, possibly more] are therefore for the USA ?

Also "BARDA is supporting the continued research and development of mRNA-1273 with $955 million in federal funding under Contract no. 75A50120C00034. BARDA is reimbursing Moderna for 100 percent of the allowable costs incurred by the company for conducting the program described in the BARDA contract. The U.S. government has committed up to $1.525 billion to purchase supply of mRNA-1273 under U.S. Department of Defense Contract No. W911QY-20-C-0100. " BARDA = Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (BARDA), part of the HHS Office of the Assistant Secretary for Preparedness and Response.

source: https://investors.modernatx.com/new...es-enrollment-phase-3-cove-study-mrna-vaccine
Yeah, I’ve only seen the 20 million doses number, but The Times is reporting that between Moderna and Pfizer, we could have 70 million doses (so full vaccinations for 35 million Americans) by the end of the year. Again, that’s assuming everything is approved and goes as planned.
 
Yeah, I’ve only seen the 20 million doses number, but The Times is reporting that between Moderna and Pfizer, we could have 70 million doses (so full vaccinations for 35 million Americans) by the end of the year. Again, that’s assuming everything is approved and goes as planned.

While Moderna's 20 million in 2020 *are* earmarked for the US alone, Pfizer hasn't said which countries are getting the 50 million doses it is making in 2020. So I wouldn't assume that all of Pfizer's 50 million are going to the USA.
 
35 million people with a vaccine is roughly 10% of the US population. 35 million sounds like a lot... but it is not.

For perspective, there are roughly 16 million Americans employed in healthcare related roles (sure, not all patient care, but a lot are), and 7.5 million Americans are employed in elementary and middle school education (not even including high school or college in this number!).

Start throwing in fire fighters or the po, and your average cruise-craving vacationer is pretty low on the 2021 list.
 
35 million people with a vaccine is roughly 10% of the US population. 35 million sounds like a lot... but it is not.

For perspective, there are roughly 16 million Americans employed in healthcare related roles (sure, not all patient care, but a lot are), and 7.5 million Americans are employed in elementary and middle school education (not even including high school or college in this number!).

Start throwing in fire fighters or the po, and your average cruise-craving vacationer is pretty low on the 2021 list.

And if they prioritize administering the vaccine to essential workers like HCW, and then by vulnerable populations [age, certain medical conditions] before they get to vaccinating the general population...

Per the US government in a 2017 report, "In the United States, the population age 65 and over numbered 49.2 million in 2016 (the most recent year for which data are available). They represented 15.2% of the population, about one in every seven Americans." [https://acl.gov/sites/default/files/Aging and Disability in America/2017OlderAmericansProfile.pdf]

I am hoping that if the two vaccines DO prove successful once they have more than preliminary data in, and their EUA applications are then successful, that once that happens there will be more information on the rollout process, both in terms of prioritization, as well as timing/availability and which countries get how many etc etc. It is some weeks or more away before then at least, so hopefully with that additional time more information will be able to become available.

Concurrently, the cruise lines will be working toward their resumption plans. The one may even partially inform the other [perhaps not an initial restart, but more likely the longer ramp up to eventual full operations and how long that may take and what it may look like in terms of phases to get there - though that is likely way off long term planning].
 
It’s a different platform from the flu. The Moderna CEO said when interviewed this morning that one of his future projects is working on a flu virus on the new platform. Sounds promising for the future.
 
Anyone find it odd that they have a vaccine that may be 90% effective in a little over six months and that flu shots are less than 50% and nothing for the common cold.
No.

Both different platforms, different fudning (flu is not being moved to new platforms because research funding isn't there), and different rates of mutation and strain change.
 
Anyone find it odd that they have a vaccine that may be 90% effective in a little over six months and that flu shots are less than 50% and nothing for the common cold.

I don’t think anything else in the world has gotten the unlimited resources and manpower that this thing has. It better be better than anything ever made.

Also, the flu vaccine would be better if we didn’t have so many afraid of those microchips that Bill Gates wants you to have but that’s for another thread that would be best for me not to participate in.
 
No.

Both different platforms, different fudning (flu is not being moved to new platforms because research funding isn't there), and different rates of mutation and strain change.

Plus the influenza virus mutates enough each year that the vaccine for one strain often provides no or only partial protection for another strain. Part of why "guessing right" about which strains will be the predominant ones in any given year is so important and has such an impact on how effective the vaccine is in any given year.

As for a "cold" vaccine... the common cold is caused by any of about 200 different viruses, only 4 of which come from the coronavirus family. There are other "families" of viruses that also contribute to what is understood as the "common cold" [eg rhinovirus]. So far researchers haven't found a common underlying element that would let them design a vaccine that could be effective against them all.

And viruses can sometimes be tricky to create vaccines for in the first place. HIV is an example. While there are many reasons why there is not an effective vaccine for it yet, one of them is that the human body does not develop good enough immunity to the virus -- including to vaccine versions of it.

For other coronaviruses that affect humans, there was work being done toward vaccines for SARS and MERS. Most of the SARS work stopped when the SARS pandemic ended. However, a lot of the work that was done towards those vaccines was able to be pivoted and used toward the SARS-COV2 [covid] problem, thereby greatly accelerating the timeframe involved [ie years of work that would normally be needed if you started "from scratch" didn't need to be because it was already done and you weren't actually starting from scratch]. Likewise work done towards the Ebola vaccines got pivoted and applied. If that work didn't exist and those vaccines didn't exist then they would be a lot further behind where they are now.

One of the biggest factors though is what Auroraborealis noted: funding. BILLIONS in funding has been thrown at the vaccine efforts for covid. Development work. Clinical trials. Manufacturing sites are being paid for, built and operated in record time and are or will soon be producing vaccine, without knowing if the vaccines will actually be successful. Pre-purchasing of doses by countries who can afford it, and global initiatives to pool donated humanitarian funds to purchase doses for countries who can't.

The closest you see that is anything remotely similar is for a pandemic influenza vaccine. That has contracts, facilities and materiel in place. We saw its implementation with the H1N1 pandemic in 2009. But pandemic influenza does not have the same kind of issues, since it is building on the exisitng work of influenza vaccines, just rapidly creating one for the specific strain in question. So its not "new', its a matter of time, scale, cost and deployment.
 
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