Long Term Effect of Trading Restrictions ?

[DougEMG]

So what does everyone think the long term effect on being able to book non-home resorts will be as more and more resale owners can't trade out of their home resort or classic14 resorts?

My understanding is that from the Riviera onwards, resale owners of the Riviera (and any other new resorts) will only be able to book at their home resort, no booking anywhere else and resale owners of the classic 14 resorts purchased after Jan 19, 2019 will only be able to book at the classic 14 resorts.

So I have a couple of concerns:

(1) Resale owners are going to want to book as early as possible (before anyone can trade into their resort) so that they at least have something. You could easily have the situation were a resale owner at the Riviera can't get a room there because everything is already booked up when they want to go (ie. summer vacation). Meanwhile SSR could have lots of empty rooms which they aren't allowed to book. [Seems to me this will increase breakage - good for DVC].

(2) Trading resorts is going to get harder for everyone as more and more points are NOT allowed to trade. Remember that most owners only hold the contract for 8-10 years. So lets pretend that 10 years after the Riviera opens, 50% of the owners are resale. I would think then that since 50% of the points at the Riviera can't trade out, that DVC must ensure that at least 50% of the points are not available for other owners to trade into. My assumption is that what comes in has to balance with what is allowed out. Is this assumption even true though? If DVC lets more points come into the resort then can trade out, then a lot of resale owners won't be able to get anything after that 7 month window opens.

(3) These restrictions are making it seem like the best thing to buy is a fixed week, at least then you know you will have something. Will be interesting to see if the Riviera has fixed weeks. If it does, then that is the what I would recommend to anyone buying there.

 

[Ben E N]

So what does everyone think the long term effect on being able to book non-home resorts will be as more and more resale owners can't trade out of their home resort or classic14 resorts?

My understanding is that from the Riviera onwards, resale owners of the Riviera (and any other new resorts) will only be able to book at their home resort, no booking anywhere else and resale owners of the classic 14 resorts purchased after Jan 19, 2019 will only be able to book at the classic 14 resorts.

So I have a couple of concerns:

(1) Resale owners are going to want to book as early as possible (before anyone can trade into their resort) so that they at least have something. You could easily have the situation were a resale owner at the Riviera can't get a room there because everything is already booked up when they want to go (ie. summer vacation). Meanwhile SSR could have lots of empty rooms which they aren't allowed to book. [Seems to me this will increase breakage - good for DVC].

(2) Trading resorts is going to get harder for everyone as more and more points are NOT allowed to trade. Remember that most owners only hold the contract for 8-10 years. So lets pretend that 10 years after the Riviera opens, 50% of the owners are resale. I would think then that since 50% of the points at the Riviera can't trade out, that DVC must ensure that at least 50% of the points are not available for other owners to trade into. My assumption is that what comes in has to balance with what is allowed out. Is this assumption even true though? If DVC lets more points come into the resort then can trade out, then a lot of resale owners won't be able to get anything after that 7 month window opens.

(3) These restrictions are making it seem like the best thing to buy is a fixed week, at least then you know you will have something. Will be interesting to see if the Riviera has fixed weeks. If it does, then that is the what I would recommend to anyone buying there.

When the restrictions were announced, my first thought was to go out and buy qualified SSR points real fast.
Then I chilled out and realized that I am good pretty much only staying at my home resort. I think more of that will come into play. Home resort owners booking early and just holding their reservations.

 

[ziravan]

So what does everyone think the long term effect on being able to book non-home resorts will be as more and more resale owners can't trade out of their home resort or classic14 resorts?

My understanding is that from the Riviera onwards, resale owners of the Riviera (and any other new resorts) will only be able to book at their home resort, no booking anywhere else and resale owners of the classic 14 resorts purchased after Jan 19, 2019 will only be able to book at the classic 14 resorts.

So I have a couple of concerns:

(1) Resale owners are going to want to book as early as possible (before anyone can trade into their resort) so that they at least have something. You could easily have the situation were a resale owner at the Riviera can't get a room there because everything is already booked up when they want to go (ie. summer vacation). Meanwhile SSR could have lots of empty rooms which they aren't allowed to book. [Seems to me this will increase breakage - good for DVC].

(2) Trading resorts is going to get harder for everyone as more and more points are NOT allowed to trade. Remember that most owners only hold the contract for 8-10 years. So lets pretend that 10 years after the Riviera opens, 50% of the owners are resale. I would think then that since 50% of the points at the Riviera can't trade out, that DVC must ensure that at least 50% of the points are not available for other owners to trade into. My assumption is that what comes in has to balance with what is allowed out. Is this assumption even true though? If DVC lets more points come into the resort then can trade out, then a lot of resale owners won't be able to get anything after that 7 month window opens.

(3) These restrictions are making it seem like the best thing to buy is a fixed week, at least then you know you will have something. Will be interesting to see if the Riviera has fixed weeks. If it does, then that is the what I would recommend to anyone buying there.

Plus. The guaranteed week will at least have resale value.

It’s a part of the deeded interest, or at least, it was on my Poly fixed week.

A DRR resale buyer buying a fixed week at least locks in some annual value for the points.

 

[Cyberc1978]

Plus. The guaranteed week will at least have resale value.

It’s a part of the deeded interest, or at least, it was on my Poly fixed week.

A DRR resale buyer buying a fixed week at least locks in some annual value for the points.

Unless DVC decides that the fixed week does not transfer with a sale. Don’t know if they are legally allowed to not allow it.

 

[Aussie RJ]

In my opinion this will simply open up a new form of renting (or trading) DVC points. On one side you have the resale owner at Riviera wanting to trade into the 14, on the other side you have an owner of a 14 who can’t get into Riviera. Add a broker in the middle to make the exchange and boom a new business angle for the rental market

 

[CarolMN]

Many DIS posters seem to assume the booking process will remain the same for the L14 owners to book Riviera and future resorts as It is to book between the L14. I do not share that assumption. IMO, everything is going to be different for the new resorts.


I believe that 7 month trading between the L14 resorts will remain about the same as it is now.

That's because I think exchanges between the L14 and Riviera (and future DVC resorts) will be accomplished via something like the Disney Collection. That will allow Disney better control over availability, because as others have pointed out, there needs to be balance between those trading out and those trading in. Also, the point charts can reflect different values for L14 points than for points from the new resorts. Perhaps the points of a new DVC resort will be worth more in trade than the points of the L14 resorts. Perhaps the charts will change annually as the charts for the Collections already do. There are many possibilities.

It's fun to speculate and interesting to read the various opinions. I'm looking forward to seeing the official offering statements and the resulting discussion.

 

[Cyberc1978]

Many DIS posters seem to assume the booking process will remain the same for the L14 owners to book Riviera and future resorts as It is to book between the L14. I do not share that assumption. IMO, everything is going to be different for the new resorts.


I believe that 7 month trading between the L14 resorts will remain about the same as it is now.

That's because I think exchanges between the L14 and Riviera (and future DVC resorts) will be accomplished via something like the Disney Collection. That will allow Disney better control over availability, because as others have pointed out, there needs to be balance between those trading out and those trading in. Also, the point charts can reflect different values for L14 points than for points from the new resorts. Perhaps the points of a new DVC resort will be worth more in trade than the points of the L14 resorts. Perhaps the charts will change annually as the charts for the Collections already do. There are many possibilities.

It's fun to speculate and interesting to read the various opinions. I'm looking forward to seeing the official offering statements and the resulting discussion.

Assuming that is the way dvc wants to go, there is a high risk (at least until dvc2 have a critical mass) that many owners of the L14 wouldn’t want to exchange into Rivera and that will effectively block direct owners at Rivera to exchange into L14.

Also depending on the exchange model 1 dvc2 point could be worth maybe 1,5 dvc1 point. In that case I’m not seeing much if any availability for dvc2 owners at either BCV, BWV, VGF, VGC, PVB or BLT because it would require those owners to exchange into Rivera for the availability to be, and that is most likely not gonna happen as it would require the owners from there to accept a severe devaluation of their points when booking Rivera.

 

[jodifla]

Have we actually seen what the Riveria is going to look like? Are there model rooms?

 

[keaster]

Have we actually seen what the Riveria is going to look like? Are there model rooms?

No point charts or room layouts yet! But I think they are getting ready...this morning on the Member services site when you look under Disney Vacation Club Resorts, they have Riviera listed with "2019 point chart...coming soon."

 

[dina444444]

Have we actually seen what the Riveria is going to look like? Are there model rooms?

https://disneyvacationclub.disney.g...riviera-resort/points-rooms/#default=0/0/0/2/

 

[snappy]

Does anyone know the cash cost to stay in the smallest accommodation in Riveria yet?

 

[Disneykate605]

It looks like the tower studio has a couch with a Murphy bed that folds down.

 

[Jelly563]

I speculate that SSR owners will finally get to see what their resort looks like..

 

[Matty B13]

Hope those pull down beds in the Tower Studios are comfortable, I would want to sleep on one before buying in, if I was looking for studios.

 

[CMNJ]

Does anyone know the cash cost to stay in the smallest accommodation in Riveria yet?

https://disneyworld.disney.go.com/resorts/riviera-resort/rates-rooms/

Edited...Looks like this link I copied from Facebook isn’t working but the post I saw said tower studios start at $335 plus tax

 

[snappy]

https://disneyworld.disney.go.com/resorts/riviera-resort/rates-rooms/

Edited...Looks like this link I copied from Facebook isn’t working but the post I saw said tower studios start at $335 plus tax

Thanks.

 

[dina444444]

Does anyone know the cash cost to stay in the smallest accommodation in Riveria yet?

Starts at $486 plus tax for the bookable dates.

 

[CMNJ]

It looks like the tower studio has a couch with a Murphy bed that folds down.

Also it seems that it is just a hotel room with no kitchenette. We use our microwave and toaster quite a bit when we stay in DVC studios

 

[CMNJ]

Starts at $486 plus tax for the bookable dates.

That’s more like what I would expect. Not sure where the prices came from on the post I saw but I was surprised they would price it so low. I was thinking it must be REALLY tiny at that price!

 

[dina444444]

That’s more like what I would expect. Now sure where the prices came from on the post I saw but I was surprised they would price it so low. I was thinking it must be REALLY tiny at that price!

It's on the rate calendar for value season. If you click on Rate Details then View Rate Calendar it will show what rack rates were for all of 2019.