Len Testa Interview

[bwbuddy5]

It's up on the podcast website, and it's great. You may never question the data accuracy of the crowd calendar again, or at least the method to the madness.

 

[yaya74]

I listened to the 5 minutes clip shown during yesterday's podcast. I have to applaud Len for his scientific approach in analyzing the crowd at WDW. Nevertheless, his crowd calendar is no use to me as my family and I can only go during the summer time. We don't want to pull our kids out of school and we don't like to travel in the winter time. We know the weather will be hot and there will be crowds in the park. With that expectation, we will enjoy our trip and make the best of it no matter what.

 

[TheMaxRebo]

It's up on the podcast website, and it's great. You may never question the data accuracy of the crowd calendar again, or at least the method to the madness.

The effort they put in to it is amazing and there is a lot of science to it - but also some art ... and at the end of the day it is still a bit of educated guessing - sort of like predicting the weather. I definitely get Pete's point though about wanting to let those who think they are just throwing darts at a wall and making stuff up that that is not accurate

 

[TheMaxRebo]

I listened to the 5 minutes clip shown during yesterday's podcast. I have to applaud Len for his scientific approach in analyzing the crowd at WDW. Nevertheless, his crowd calendar is no use to me as my family and I can only go during the summer time. We don't want to pull our kids out of school and we don't like to travel in the winter time. We know the weather will be hot and there will be crowds in the park. With that expectation, we will enjoy our trip and make the best of it no matter what.

We still use the parts of crowd calendars that show which park to visit which day - so even if overall is an 8 or 9 level crowd day, we can arrange our week to try and go to each park on the best days for that park vs the others

 

[Willow1213]

Yesterday's short clip reminded me of why I love touring plans so much. I'm a data person at heart, and love being able to tweak what park on what day based on Len's predictions. We go the same time every year (or have in the past at least), and we still found value in the crowd calendars for the day to day planning.

 

[Queen2PrincessG]

The effort they put in to it is amazing and there is a lot of science to it - but also some art ... and at the end of the day it is still a bit of educated guessing - sort of like predicting the weather. I definitely get Pete's point though about wanting to let those who think they are just throwing darts at a wall and making stuff up that that is not accurate

Agree.

 

[bwbuddy5]

I should have made it more clear, the full interview is available as a Bonus episode of the podcast, not just the 5 minutes that were played on the weekly show.

 

[mcd2745]

We still use the parts of crowd calendars that show which park to visit which day - so even if overall is an 8 or 9 level crowd day, we can arrange our week to try and go to each park on the best days for that park vs the others

This. For many families, it's very limited as to what week of the year they can choose to visit. However, once you've decided on what week you will go, in order to get the most of your trip, picking the right park on each day is very helpful. There's a bunch of factors that can go into those decisions - such as whether or not you want to take advantage of EMH (if staying on-site) or not. One popular methodology for picking what park each day is to avoid EMH altogether and go to a park the day after that park had EMH - based on the assumption that EMH will have added extra crowds to that park on that day, so less people will be visiting that park the next day. Fireworks/parade/entertainment schedules also will play a factor if something is not scheduled daily.

 

[lentesta]

You're all too kind. Thanks very much. And thanks again for Craig and Pete for having me on.

We recognize that some folks don't have a choice as to when they visit WDW. The thing to remember is that the touring plans use the same methodology to estimate wait times at attractions. So even if you can't pick the time of year you visit, you can still take advantage of the touring plans.

And I'm sure it's a coincidence, but the calendar has done pretty well since the DIS had me on the show.

 

[TheMaxRebo]

This. For many families, it's very limited as to what week of the year they can choose to visit. However, once you've decided on what week you will go, in order to get the most of your trip, picking the right park on each day is very helpful. There's a bunch of factors that can go into those decisions - such as whether or not you want to take advantage of EMH (if staying on-site) or not. One popular methodology for picking what park each day is to avoid EMH altogether and go to a park the day after that park had EMH - based on the assumption that EMH will have added extra crowds to that park on that day, so less people will be visiting that park the next day. Fireworks/parade/entertainment schedules also will play a factor if something is not scheduled daily.

Exactly - and I think there are some historical trends applied too - last or that most people like to start their trip at MK so that makes MK more crowded we’d on a Monday ma than other parks, etc - and also if any events are going on (so avoid EPCOT on Fridays and Saturdays during Food and swine)

 

[APiratesLifeForMe2]

I downloaded the full interview this morning. Very interesting and insightful.

 

[vwlfan]

The effort they put in to it is amazing and there is a lot of science to it - but also some art ... and at the end of the day it is still a bit of educated guessing - sort of like predicting the weather. I definitely get Pete's point though about wanting to let those who think they are just throwing darts at a wall and making stuff up that that is not accurate

Very much agree.

 

[vwlfan]

I think Pete is to be applauded for his efforts to fairly and objectively evaluate TP’s professional efforts to do the right thing by their readers.

I also thought that the group’s analysis was spot on in distilling at least one root cause for guests’ displeasure with uncharacteristic crowd levels. Ta Da, corporate greed, in this case Disney’s shaving customer service ratios in order to save paying more Cast Members’ minimum wage levels.

 

[KC Mouse]

You're all too kind. Thanks very much. And thanks again for Craig and Pete for having me on.

We recognize that some folks don't have a choice as to when they visit WDW. The thing to remember is that the touring plans use the same methodology to estimate wait times at attractions. So even if you can't pick the time of year you visit, you can still take advantage of the touring plans.

And I'm sure it's a coincidence, but the calendar has done pretty well since the DIS had me on the show.

Did I understand correctly that Disney is actually removing staff from attractions in order to make the park feel more crowded? Why would they do that? Attempt to hike up ticket process.

 

[rteetz]

Did I understand correctly that Disney is actually removing staff from attractions in order to make the park feel more crowded? Why would they do that? Attempt to hike up ticket process.

There are several reasons why a company would do that. One being costs and maintenance. Len did go into it a bit in the interview.

 

[lentesta]

There are several reasons why a company would do that. One being costs and maintenance. Len did go into it a bit in the interview.

The goal would be lower operational costs, especially payroll and maintenance.

Here's the graph I mentioned on the show, showing how much wait times have increased in the past couple of years (this was through April 2017):

So as of a year ago, wait times were up at the Magic Kingdom by just under 60% relative to late 2013. There's no chance - zero - that attendance was up anything close to that. Same thing at the other parks.

 

[Monykalyn]

So as of a year ago, wait times were up at the Magic Kingdom by just under 60% relative to late 2013

WOW! coupled with shorter park hours and no wonder "crowds" appear worse. Interesting that they don't run on full capacity on "slower" days either.

I still fine lots of value in TP-I did personalized plans for our 2014 trip (first trip after 10 year break) and I don't think we ever waited in line more than 20 minutes tops, even for SDMT and the hot ticket of A&E meet n greet. My son (his first visit) thought Disney was awesome because we never waited in a line!

Now I will do Personalized plans to get me started for the day, but we tour differently now so I don't need to follow strictly anymore. However I always submit real life wait times when we go-the whole family likes to see just how long we actually waited vs Disney wait time!

 

[DisneyLover1217]

I appreciate the effort Len puts into his touring plans. I know some people have stopped with theirs as it really has been so hard to predict, especially since it seems Disney is now running at half capacity during slower times making the crowds seem worse. For example, if they have let's say 1,000 CM's on days for 50,000 people and then 500 CM's on days they have 25,000 the lines are going to be the same.

I think a good way to tell if a park is truly crowded is look at the quick service restaurants, if rides are having 2 hour lines but you can get a table really easily, odds are they are running at half capacity and it's not really crowded at all.

 

[SorcererHeidi]

I've never used a crowd calendar, but am not against anyone else using them, and I was definitely amazed and awed by the "science" that goes into it. I have always personally tried to avoid Epcot on weekends, and on Friday nights during Food & Wine, and also the MK on weekends at any time of year. I also try to avoid whatever park has morning EMH, at least during the first 3/4 of that day. Other than that, I've always "winged it". And I've pretty much also always had a hopper - so - if I feel a certain park was too crowded for me to deal with, I'd leave and go to another.

 

[Louie7080]

One good thing about TP's crowd calendar and Len's analysis, as I see it, is to get the truth out there on how Disney is cutting back. There is now a significant discussion here that will hopefully spread and reach many potential visitors. Hopefully Disney will respond in a way that benefits guests and the long term health of park attendance/Disney's bottom line.