For those wondering if we're experiencing a slow-down in activity here on the thread... The r/churning daily discussion thread is discussing the same issue today.
Duff, A moderator over there shared this:
In the last year, we haven't had much positive news to comment on - no new earth-shattering card introductions, no major program mergers, stuff like that. What has been newsworthy is all negative - 1099s for referrals (which mostly only affects vets), Amex self-refer clawbacks, Serve shutdown, etc. Without new things to comment on, it's all just generally variations on the same questions like "If my P2 is an AU on my CSP can they get a CSP bonus for themselves?". Less novel content leads to fewer contents. And people are more likely to downvote because we have much better search tools now than we did a couple years ago - if you can't use the tools provided here, how good at this hobby are you going to be? And searching eliminates questions because people found their answer by searching.
Churning is definitely in a lull right now. We're in an era of simple strategies for those still playing the game. We are over 3 years removed from the introduction of the CSR and 2 1/2+ years since the 100k bonus went away. This was a major "needle mover" for churning. It attracted many new people to the game. I'd venture to guess that since that time we have seen more people fall away from this hobby than join it. Reasons for why I'd think that:
- Concern over credit score and myths that churning hurts it: It was nice to earn a few bonuses but being a "real churner" is scary to many people
- Fees and Interest: We all assume nobody is paying any fees or interest in the game but the truth of the matter is that some people are not paying their cards off in full every month. It's possible that there are even some among our group here that are incurring these "costs of the game" and just masking it to play along.
- Lack of Organization: Churning typically requires a high degree of organization. You have to keep track of when you signed up for cards, the MSR, did the bonus post, multiple payment dates, etc. It would be interesting to know the average shelf life of a churner. They always say the average career of an NFL player is less than 3 years. I wonder if the same might be true of churners?
- Scarcity of Opportunity: going along with my last bullet point, I also wonder if people hit 5/24, run into an Amex popup or 2 and just start to think this isn't worth the hassle anymore.
- Perhaps one more reason is what Duff spoke to: a generally negative news cycle. Perhaps the plethora of bad news events has just resonated with people and they just don’t find churning to be worth it any more with so many rules and issues.
So a fun discussion topic for US here today: Do you think CC Churning is in a lull? Do you agree with my reasons? Do you have any other reasons? And why are YOU still here and any other thoughts?
EDIT: Should I take the lack of responses to this in the first 20 minutes as an indication that our thread is dying too?
EDIT2: I've been told my discussion topic is not "fun" so I will strike that word, LOL!
It’s definitely at a lull and I do believe your reasons are sound.
But like I always say, the one constant in this hobby is change. It always changes and you either adapt and roll with the punches or you don’t and move on to something else.
I wasn’t in the game during the glory days of the mint when everyone was purchasing $1 coins at face value and no shipping, depositing it into their bank and paying their credit card.
I've earned and burned millions of miles but never did it by purchasing pudding and earning lifetime AA gold in the process.
I never paid rice farmers in Thailand to take short surrogate flights and earn millions of miles.
I started after the hey days of those churners who were able to implement the aforementioned examples and I've done ok. I’ve been playing the game since before 5/24 was a thing, before BarCray Cray stopped allowing you to have 10 of the same card, before BoA implemented their limits and before Citi did their limitations and before Amex had lifetime language on their business cards.
I’m still here and still playing the game and still doing ok. Granted some of the previous strategies I've enjoyed in the past are no more. The game isn't as easy as it once was. I adapt and keep playing. I never expect anything other than change.
I'm definitely in the not paying interest camp because that would eat up the value of my points. Now, we all know I have no issues being the Queen of AFs but all AFs must be justifiable and provide a value greater than said AF.
I've seen my credit score go up over the years and the number of vacations I take increase. The types of vacations I have been able to experience are enough to keep me playing the game and just roll with it when the inevitable changes come.
Why am I still here? My bucket list is long and grows longer every time I cross something off. There is so much I still have not experienced. There is also much that I have not yet discovered I want to experience.
I haven't seen the Dark Hedges in Northern Ireland or the Giant's Causeway. I haven't spent days languishing at Ashford Castle. These are on the books for next September though.
I haven't hit my 7th continent (Africa) yet. I haven't stayed at Giraffe Manor. That will be next year too.
I have not seen Victoria Falls but can hopefully squeeze that into next year's Africa trip.
I've been to the Maldives, but not to Bora Bora ... yet.
I haven't seen Iguazu Falls from a helicopter.
I've been to Norway but did not climb Pulpit Rock when I was there.
I haven't seen the Great Pyramids of Egypt.
I have not been to the Galapagos Islands
I have not seen the Taj Mahal
I have not been to Bali or Thailand (does this mean I'm not a real churner)
I've heard Croatia is lovely but have not see in yet.
I would like to visit New Zealand and Fiji
Santorini and Mykonos are also on my list
The real Matterhorn would be nice to see as well
I would like to experience a rail train vacation
These are just a few of the reasons I'm still here but there are oh so many more. This hobby has led me to discover that very little, in terms of travel, is out of reach. Points and miles allow me to go just about anywhere and do just about anything. All I need to do is figure out which points and miles and give myself the time to accumulate them.