For those wondering if we're experiencing a slow-down in activity here on the thread... The r/churning daily discussion thread is discussing the same issue today.
Duff, A moderator over there shared this:
In the last year, we haven't had much positive news to comment on - no new earth-shattering card introductions, no major program mergers, stuff like that. What has been newsworthy is all negative - 1099s for referrals (which mostly only affects vets), Amex self-refer clawbacks, Serve shutdown, etc. Without new things to comment on, it's all just generally variations on the same questions like "If my P2 is an AU on my CSP can they get a CSP bonus for themselves?". Less novel content leads to fewer contents. And people are more likely to downvote because we have much better search tools now than we did a couple years ago - if you can't use the tools provided here, how good at this hobby are you going to be? And searching eliminates questions because people found their answer by searching.
Churning is definitely in a lull right now. We're in an era of simple strategies for those still playing the game. We are over 3 years removed from the introduction of the CSR and 2 1/2+ years since the 100k bonus went away. This was a major "needle mover" for churning. It attracted many new people to the game. I'd venture to guess that since that time we have seen more people fall away from this hobby than join it. Reasons for why I'd think that:
- Concern over credit score and myths that churning hurts it: It was nice to earn a few bonuses but being a "real churner" is scary to many people
- Fees and Interest: We all assume nobody is paying any fees or interest in the game but the truth of the matter is that some people are not paying their cards off in full every month. It's possible that there are even some among our group here that are incurring these "costs of the game" and just masking it to play along.
- Lack of Organization: Churning typically requires a high degree of organization. You have to keep track of when you signed up for cards, the MSR, did the bonus post, multiple payment dates, etc. It would be interesting to know the average shelf life of a churner. They always say the average career of an NFL player is less than 3 years. I wonder if the same might be true of churners?
- Scarcity of Opportunity: going along with my last bullet point, I also wonder if people hit 5/24, run into an Amex popup or 2 and just start to think this isn't worth the hassle anymore.
- Perhaps one more reason is what Duff spoke to: a generally negative news cycle. Perhaps the plethora of bad news events has just resonated with people and they just don’t find churning to be worth it any more with so many rules and issues.
So a fun discussion topic for US here today: Do you think CC Churning is in a lull? Do you agree with my reasons? Do you have any other reasons? And why are YOU still here and any other thoughts?
EDIT: Should I take the lack of responses to this in the first 20 minutes as an indication that our thread is dying too?