I heard that the Grand Floridian was over-sold, yes/no?

MomMaxer

Earning My Ears
Joined
Aug 16, 2017
I heard anecdotally that the VGF oversold DVC shares, is this the case? Any of you have this as a home resort and struggle to book 11 mos out? Thanks!
 
This is not true (that Disney oversold). But it certainly is true that for some popular times, like December, not everybody who want to stay there can find a room at the 11 month mark. VGF is a relatively small resort.
 
Studios in December are very hard to book. We only have points to go every 2 years. I will be struggling to get in December 2018!
 
One, two and three bedroom villas require more points than studios. With the price of points. lots of members only purchase enough points for a studio. That means there is a lot of competition for those studios, even right at 11 months out. And it means larger villas go vacant. Same at the Polynesian Villas and Bungalows.
 


Just for illustration, lets say that the following points are allocated per room...

Grand Villa: 450 points
2BR: 200 points
1BR: 150 points
Studio: 50 points

So we'll say Disney has 850 points to sell to fill these 4 rooms. The problem is that (2) people buy 200 points for the 2BR, but then (9) people buy 50 points for the studio. Disney sold the full allotment of points (850) but no single buyer can stay in the GV and a majority of the buyers cannot stay in anything EXCEPT a studio. This is a basic illustration of why competition is so high for studios at many of the resorts. A lot of owners only have enough points for a studio and there aren't enough to go around.
 
It is illegal to oversell. But because DVC is points based, there is never a guarantee you will get a particular unit at a particular time as an owner. VGF sees this with studios. poly may see this eventually since 20%+ of the points came out of the bungalow valuation.
 


We don't own at VGF, but I was able to get a week there last year over 4th of July (2016) at 7 months out.
And we got a one bedroom for six nights starting the Sunday before Memorial Day at seven months out. But I wouldn't expect it in Dec or Oct.
 
I heard anecdotally that the VGF oversold DVC shares, is this the case? Any of you have this as a home resort and struggle to book 11 mos out? Thanks!

Nope.

Everyone (ok, a little exaggeration but not that much) bought small contracts to book a few days in December to stay in studios and experience the Christmas season. That is the time it can be very difficult to get a room. Add in the fact that they sold fixed weeks and early December were the most sold I believe and that immediately removes some of the rooms from the general inventory and makes it even more difficult.

Other times of the year it's really no different than any other small resort. And the larger villas are frequently available at 7 months.
 
Just for illustration, lets say that the following points are allocated per room...

Grand Villa: 450 points
2BR: 200 points
1BR: 150 points
Studio: 50 points

So we'll say Disney has 850 points to sell to fill these 4 rooms. The problem is that (2) people buy 200 points for the 2BR, but then (9) people buy 50 points for the studio. Disney sold the full allotment of points (850) but no single buyer can stay in the GV and a majority of the buyers cannot stay in anything EXCEPT a studio. This is a basic illustration of why competition is so high for studios at many of the resorts. A lot of owners only have enough points for a studio and there aren't enough to go around.

well put.
 
Nope.

Everyone (ok, a little exaggeration but not that much) bought small contracts to book a few days in December to stay in studios and experience the Christmas season. That is the time it can be very difficult to get a room. Add in the fact that they sold fixed weeks and early December were the most sold I believe and that immediately removes some of the rooms from the general inventory and makes it even more difficult.

Other times of the year it's really no different than any other small resort. And the larger villas are frequently available at 7 months.

I'd be curious to see stats on the dispersion of the most when the fixed weeks were sold. When I did my quick research on the largest point holders of VGF -- the majority of fixed weeks were for the summer months...in grand villas. That struck me as odd -- b/c I would presume those buyers essentially wasted their money in paying a premium for rooms that were unlikely to be sold out.

I can only imagine what was in the sales guide's mind when they were upselling the mark from 1200 points to 1400 to "ensure" that they got the coveted 29th week of the year.

I saw one owner that had two consecutive fixed weeks during the summer in a grand villa. I think it was well over $300,000 for the initial direct contract. That sales guide probably popped a bottle of champagne after that meeting.
 
I'd be curious to see stats on the dispersion of the most when the fixed weeks were sold. When I did my quick research on the largest point holders of VGF -- the majority of fixed weeks were for the summer months...in grand villas. That struck me as odd -- b/c I would presume those buyers essentially wasted their money in paying a premium for rooms that were unlikely to be sold out.

I can only imagine what was in the sales guide's mind when they were upselling the mark from 1200 points to 1400 to "ensure" that they got the coveted 29th week of the year.

I saw one owner that had two consecutive fixed weeks during the summer in a grand villa. I think it was well over $300,000 for the initial direct contract. That sales guide probably popped a bottle of champagne after that meeting.
http://dvcnews.com/index.php/resort...63-fixed-week-sales-at-grand-floridian-villas
 
I'd be curious to see stats on the dispersion of the most when the fixed weeks were sold. When I did my quick research on the largest point holders of VGF -- the majority of fixed weeks were for the summer months...in grand villas. That struck me as odd -- b/c I would presume those buyers essentially wasted their money in paying a premium for rooms that were unlikely to be sold out.

I can only imagine what was in the sales guide's mind when they were upselling the mark from 1200 points to 1400 to "ensure" that they got the coveted 29th week of the year.

I saw one owner that had two consecutive fixed weeks during the summer in a grand villa. I think it was well over $300,000 for the initial direct contract. That sales guide probably popped a bottle of champagne after that meeting.
In January 2015, I posted an article Looking at Guaranteed Week Sales for the Grand Floridian on DVCNews.com. At that time, 247 Guaranteed Week deeds had been sold. Since then, a few more deeds have been sold, bringing the total to 275 deeds.

I may be misinterpreting your statement, but the majority of fixed week deeds are not for the summer months. Of VGF's 275 deeds, about 20% have been sold for weeks #22 to #35, which covers the period from the end of May to the end of August. By far, the most popular period for fixed weeks is the last six weeks of the year: 108 of the 275 fixed week deeds are for Weeks #47 to #52.

By the way, fixed week deeds account for only 3.9% of VGF's total points.
 
In January 2015, I posted an article Looking at Guaranteed Week Sales for the Grand Floridian on DVCNews.com. At that time, 247 Guaranteed Week deeds had been sold. Since then, a few more deeds have been sold, bringing the total to 275 deeds.

I may be misinterpreting your statement, but the majority of fixed week deeds are not for the summer months. Of VGF's 275 deeds, about 20% have been sold for weeks #22 to #35, which covers the period from the end of May to the end of August. By far, the most popular period for fixed weeks is the last six weeks of the year: 108 of the 275 fixed week deeds are for Weeks #47 to #52.

By the way, fixed week deeds account for only 3.9% of VGF's total points.

to be clear -- I assumed my "research" was faulty.

it was based on my curiosity of who owned the largest point totals at VGF -- essentially I was curious if there were any celebrities I might have the opportunity to rub elbows with.

I searched the OCC for the largest point totals at VGF and they corresponded to those summer months. This makes sense since the summer costs quite a bit more than december. So a fixed week in July would be ~1200 points as opposed to ~800 points in December. So it is not surprising to me that the largest point holders have fixed weeks in july/august as compared to the majority of fixed week holders that paid 150ish points for december. Perhaps the majority of grandvilla fixed weeks are not in December? I have no idea. I would love to know the answer.


Needless to say, I was disappointed in my search. I essentially discovered that the largest single point holders (at least those that didn't split their purchases up into multiple contracts) at VGF were largely foreigners from the middle east...so there was not much chance of my running into anyone I considered "famous." I was really hoping I could find that some celebrity had a fix week in December and then I could coincidentally book that week and just "run" into them during the vacation. Alas -- that isn't bound to happen.
 
to be clear -- I assumed my "research" was faulty.

it was based on my curiosity of who owned the largest point totals at VGF -- essentially I was curious if there were any celebrities I might have the opportunity to rub elbows with.

I searched the OCC for the largest point totals at VGF and they corresponded to those summer months. This makes sense since the summer costs quite a bit more than december. So a fixed week in July would be ~1200 points as opposed to ~800 points in December. So it is not surprising to me that the largest point holders have fixed weeks in july/august as compared to the majority of fixed week holders that paid 150ish points for december. Perhaps the majority of grandvilla fixed weeks are not in December? I have no idea. I would love to know the answer.


Needless to say, I was disappointed in my search. I essentially discovered that the largest single point holders (at least those that didn't split their purchases up into multiple contracts) at VGF were largely foreigners from the middle east...so there was not much chance of my running into anyone I considered "famous." I was really hoping I could find that some celebrity had a fix week in December and then I could coincidentally book that week and just "run" into them during the vacation. Alas -- that isn't bound to happen.

Looking at the referenced article the one chart shows what weeks GV fixed weeks were purchased. The last 5 weeks of the year each had 1 sold so that's 5 of the 17. From June-Aug there were 7 GV fixed weeks sold but that's a longer period of time. It is the second most concentrated time though.
 
I heard anecdotally that the VGF oversold DVC shares, is this the case? Any of you have this as a home resort and struggle to book 11 mos out? Thanks!
I don't think it's oversold but there will be competition for certain villa types and times of the year. Assume you'll have to reserve day on 11 months out if you want there consistently but as noted, you might get it at times 7 months out.
 
When it opened, VGF was the only resort to sleep 5 people in a studio. People bought thinking that is was a huge saving over buying points for a 1Bed at other resorts. This is one of the factors than made studio a really difficult category to book there.
 
Are VGF direct points available as an add on? I mean, has anyone had recent luck getting any?

We just bought 50 with a February UY, it took about a month and a half of waiting though. They have a unofficial waitlist held by each Guide, so if you are looking for some just call your Guide and let them know what you are looking for. I would call or email every week or 2 to check-in with our Guide.
 

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