Hurricane Jerry -- "No Problem, Mon."

JimMIA

There's more to life than mice...
Joined
Feb 16, 2005
Tropical Depression Ten is expected to become Tropical Storm Jerry tonight. The system is FAR away -- more than 1800 miles east of the Lesser Antilles which form the eastern boundary of the Caribbean Sea. It's currently moving WNW at 12 miles per hour. Winds are just below tropical storm strength at 35 mph.

By the weekend, the storm is currently forecast to pass to the north of the Caribbean islands. It's way too early to tell where the storm goes from there, but it will be something to keep an eye on next week.

I will probably not post anything further until Saturday or Sunday when we may have a better idea where it is going. Here's the 11 AM forecast map.

436657
 
Thank you for your continued updates.

I have a dog in the fight this go-round, watching carefully. All reliable models I’ve seen still have it following along Umberto’s path & pass offshore of florida with little effect starting Monday. Not wringing my hands yet but fingers sure crossed in general for the area. We have a Wednesday am flight into MCO, would hate for a delay or cancellation.

It’s Quite the active season so far this year.
 
Thank you for your continued updates.

I have a dog in the fight this go-round, watching carefully. All reliable models I’ve seen still have it following along Umberto’s path & pass offshore of florida with little effect starting Monday. Not wringing my hands yet but fingers sure crossed in general for the area. We have a Wednesday am flight into MCO, would hate for a delay or cancellation.

It’s Quite the active season so far this year.
Yes, I think it's most likely not going to get west of 70 W...which is almost 700 miles east of West Palm Beach, FL.

It's still a little too early to call, but I doubt if Hurricane Jerry will affect Florida.
 
There was a thread on the DCL forum regarding the conversion of this Saturday’s Fantasy sailing to a Western Caribbean itinerary. Also reported on the DCL Blog: https://disneycruiselineblog.com/. The blog also reports a rerouting of the Magic’s current transatlantic sailing to skip two Canadian ports and arriving a day early in New York to avoid Hurricane Humberto.

Jim, thanks again for the weather tracking. We don’t sail until the second week of November (still hurricane season, I know), but I’ve already started paying more active attention.
 


Hurricane Jerry looks like it's not coming anywhere near Florida, or the US for that matter. The storm is expected to continue on it's current northwesterly track this weekend and then begin recurving to the NE on Monday. It should pose no threat to the United States, but could impact Bermuda later next week. Jerry should not affect air travel in the US.

Here's the final (hopefully) map for Jerry:

437420
 
There was a thread on the DCL forum regarding the conversion of this Saturday’s Fantasy sailing to a Western Caribbean itinerary. Also reported on the DCL Blog: https://disneycruiselineblog.com/. The blog also reports a rerouting of the Magic’s current transatlantic sailing to skip two Canadian ports and arriving a day early in New York to avoid Hurricane Humberto.
Yep, this is the time of the year when tropical systems play havoc with cruise itineraries. We usually have a number of waves coming off western Africa into warm waters of the tropical North Atlantic. We also begin to see system development in the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico, like we just saw with Tropical Storm Imelda in Texas this week.

As we get into October, you will see Africa quiet down and most of the development will be in the Caribbean and Gulf.

Right now, we have three areas being watched in addition to Hurricane Jerry, as shown in the NHC map below.
  • The yellow area on the left, below Hispaniola, has about a 10% chance of cyclone development in the next 5 days.
  • The other yellow area, in the tropical North Atlantic east of the Lesser Antilles, has a 30% chance of development in the next 5 days.
  • The wave coming off Western Africa has a high probability of development (70%).
It's WAY too early to guess what will happen with these systems, but the one south of Hispaniola certainly bears watching, just because it's relatively close and in a location where it could become a problem.

Here's the 5-day outlook:

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