Help with February 1st, 2042!

[Terri2007]

Hello All! I think this questions is better placed in Purchasing DVC forum (as opposed to MS). I have tried to understand 2043 since we own at BCV. We are looking to add on more points and the idea of having a longer DVC life span is playing into our decision since we would pass on to our kids.

I understand that in 2042 our points are in the wind.

What happens to these resorts when they expire? Will owners of the other long life resorts continue to be able to trade into these correct? Or is this implied but yet to be actually determined?

Also do people expect that Disney will offer contract extensions as these life spans wind down, similar to OKV?

Thanks for your expertise and forecasting in advance!

 

[Disneycouple99]

Hello All! I think this questions is better placed in Purchasing DVC forum (as opposed to MS). I have tried to understand 2043 since we own at BCV/SSR with expirations in 2042. We are looking to add on more points and the idea of having a longer DVC life span is playing into our decision since we would pass on to our kids.

I understand that in 2042 our 250 points at BCV/SSR are in the wind.

What happens to these resorts for other owners with longer time spams. They will continue to be able to trade into these correct? Or is this implied but yet to be actually determined?

Also do people expect that Disney will offer contract extensions as these life spans wind down, similar to OKV?

Thanks for your expertise and forecasting in advance!

Unless they offer an extension to the resort, which is uncertain at this point, you will no longer be able to use your SSR points at the resorts that have expired. The resort returns to Disney control to do as they wish with them.

 

[The Jackal]

SSR is valid till 2054. BCV is 2042 and I’m pretty sure the 2042 resorts expire on January 31 2042. It is unknown what Disney is going to do. They have a bunch of resorts expiring in 2042 BCV, BWV, HHI, VB, BRV. OKW was extended to 2057 and all new direct sales are 2057 dates. They might extend some, but probably not all.

Most likely DVC will redo the resorts and resell them and who knows what DVC’s plan will be then as far as trading into. They seem they want to get away from it.

 

[Terri2007]

But what other option would realistically exist for Disney? If they didn't extend the ability to trade into them from longer life resorts - wouldn't this be seriously detrimental - (not enough rooms for those who want and not enough people to book the resorts that are now "expired"?

 

[Terri2007]

SSR is valid till 2054. BCV is 2042 and I’m pretty sure the 2042 resorts expire on January 31 2042. It is unknown what Disney is going to do. They have a bunch of resorts expiring in 2042 BCV, BWV, HHI, VB, BRV. OKW was extended to 2057 and all new direct sales are 2057 dates. They might extend some, but probably not all.

Yes, of course! I should have titled the thread - Help with February 1st 2042!

OK - just changed the title

 

[chalee94]

We just had this discussion:

https://www.disboards.com/threads/dvc-resorts-expiring-2042.3745195/

I will bet against extensions. After the 2042 resorts are refurbished or rebuilt, i expect the new resorts will be resold with new point charts under whatever the rules are at that point. But that may take a year or so...

 

[Terri2007]

Ok, thanks for the link!

 

[chalee94]

But what other option would realistically exist for Disney? If they didn't extend the ability to trade into them from longer life resorts - wouldn't this be seriously detrimental - (not enough rooms for those who want and not enough people to book the resorts that are now "expired"?

The points for the villas at the resorts that expire are equal to the points owned by the owners of those resorts. The system would change but remain in balance.

You seem very confused about the system in general.

 

[RaymOOOnd]

I highly doubt that owners of contracts for resorts expiring after 2042 will be able to use their points at the NEW BCV, BWV, BRV etc. I haven't seen it mentioned here as much as I'd expect, but people with longer contracts (Poly, VGF etc) will see their options at 7 months dwindle from 2042 onward.

There's speculation as to whether you'll be able to buy an extension for $485pp when your resort does expire

 

[Terri2007]

The points for the villas at the resorts that expire are equal to the points owned by the owners of those resorts. The system would change but remain in balance.

You seem very confused about the system in general.

Yes, thanks for the insight!

I highly doubt that owners of contracts for resorts expiring after 2042 will be able to use their points at the NEW BCV, BWV, BRV etc. I haven't seen it mentioned here as much as I'd expect, but people with longer contracts (Poly, VGF etc) will see their options at 7 months dwindle from 2042 onward.

This was what I was trying to get at when I had the followup question. Thank you!

 

[DVCsince2002]

We own at BCV, and I have always tried to convince myself that DVC will do something to “benefit” BCV owners of record in 2042. 2042 is important because it sets the precedent, and potentially a market expectation, as to whether there is some extra value in owning all the way to the end. But it is probably just wishful thinking. More realistically, it will probably be nothing more than an early buy-in incentive, like the one just being offered at Riviera. And the post 2042 buy-in will be very expensive relative to where we are now on $ per point. This is one of the reasons we decided to buy Riviera now — as a hedge against the future higher prices at the current Epcot resorts, and to ensure that we and our teenage children will be able to continue staying near Epcot and Hollywood Studios, which is the only place we all want to stay.

 

[Deb & Bill]

We own at BCV, and I have always tried to convince myself that DVC will do something to “benefit” BCV owners of record in 2042. 2042 is important because it sets the precedent, and potentially a market expectation, as to whether there is some extra value in owning all the way to the end. But it is probably just wishful thinking. More realistically, it will probably be nothing more than an early buy-in incentive, like the one just being offered at Riviera. And the post 2042 buy-in will be very expensive relative to where we are now on $ per point. This is one of the reasons we decided to buy Riviera now — as a hedge against the future higher prices at the current Epcot resorts, and to ensure that we and our teenage children will be able to continue staying near Epcot and Hollywood Studios, which is the only place we all want to stay.

Disney looks out for Disney. They could continue to rent out the villas for cash as they renovate the resorts into new resorts to be resold. Or close them and renovate.

 

[chalee94]

I highly doubt that owners of contracts for resorts expiring after 2042 will be able to use their points at the NEW BCV, BWV, BRV etc. I haven't seen it mentioned here as much as I'd expect, but people with longer contracts (Poly, VGF etc) will see their options at 7 months dwindle from 2042 onward.

If grandfathered and direct owners at SSR and BLT can book Riviera, why not?

Are you supposing that DVC will no longer be profitable in 2042? You seem to be making things up without any sort of basis for your assumptions.

There's speculation as to whether you'll be able to buy an extension for $485pp when your resort does expire

Speculation from you?

Most of us think Disney will want to revise the ground lease contracts and update the point charts. They cannot do that with an extension. They can do that by reselling the resorts as new resorts.

 

[RaymOOOnd]

If grandfathered and direct owners at SSR and BLT can book Riviera, why not?

Are you supposing that DVC will no longer be profitable in 2042? You seem to be making things up without any sort of basis for your assumptions.



Speculation from you?

Most of us think Disney will want to revise the ground lease contracts and update the point charts. They cannot do that with an extension. They can do that by reselling the resorts as new resorts.

Isn't "making things up" what we're all doing? Just giving my best guess as to what will happen, as happens on every thread many times per day. If we knew what would happen there'd be no basis for the discussion in the first place...

Yes, I'd be surprised if my BLT resale points happen to work at BCV2 or whatever when/if it opens after 2045 or so. Especially given that new restrictive rules seem to emerge now every other year. You're quite free to disagree. Now, "making things up" would be if I were to try and state these things as fact, rather than as the admitted pessimistic guesses that they are.

 

[RaymOOOnd]

Speculation from you?

Most of us think Disney will want to revise the ground lease contracts and update the point charts. They cannot do that with an extension. They can do that by reselling the resorts as new resorts.

And the part about $485pp was just sarcasm related to how expensive things are becoming, which you seem to have taken seriously

 

[chalee94]

And the part about $485pp was just sarcasm related to how expensive things are becoming, which you seem to have taken seriously

I was taking issue with the "extension" language for the reasons I mentioned, not the dollar ballpark figure.

 

[_auroraborealis_]

1. On February 1, 2042, BCV, BWV, BRV, VB and HHI are all no longer DVC resorts unless Disney file declarations of timeshare blah blah, like they have to with every new resort.

2. The odds on this filing being an extension, either allowing existing owners to buy in at heavy discount, on the same point charts, mathematically approaches zero. Between not being able to change the point charts or add points or remodel heavily on a true extension, change the terms of trading within BVT with other resorts, or possibly getting stuck with 1/3-1/2+ ownership of the resort for 10-15 years (too hard to re-sell at primo rates) to go with their albatross of OKW... yeah, no.

3. You will undoubtedly be welcome to buy whatever new resort(s) are sliced and diced from the old.

4. If you own points qualified in whatever the DVC1/DVC2 associations look like by that time, you can probably book the new resorts. Maybe.

It's safest and most realistic to expect them to be gone February 1 for any purpose, and if they are going to remodel they'll be out of all systems for a while. I suspect VB and HHI get sold off entirely. BRV, there are several options I can see happen, but none are a pure extension. BCV and BWV, they want to re-do point charts, and may also want to reconfigure units to reflect whatever is in style for accommodation by then.

 

[gscott8075]

Disney has done a reasonable job keeping up the resorts - and they have significant cap reserves to continue refurbishments. I believe in 2042, they will close out the DVC1 and remarket under DVC2 and sell new points for a 50 year term. They can then 'correct' (increase) all of the old point charts to a similar level as the newer resorts and implement DVC2 rules.

 

[Deb & Bill]

Disney has done a reasonable job keeping up the resorts - and they have significant cap reserves to continue refurbishments. I believe in 2042, they will close out the DVC1 and remarket under DVC2 and sell new points for a 50 year term. They can then 'correct' (increase) all of the old point charts to a similar level as the newer resorts and implement DVC2 rules.

I thought that once the contract ends, there isn't supposed to be any reserves left since that money actually belongs to the owners and not DVC.

 

[Wakey]

As a business, they have potentially hundreds of thousands of new customers when the resorts expire- people who have had the benefits, families of users, who now just see their contract turn to dust- a bit like the characters in Avengers, or maybe a better anology is 'This contract will self destruct at 2042' as per Man From Uncle.
There is no way on earth they won't maximise revenue. Currently this looks like starting again, significantly increasing points per night and making billions more.
But who knows what the landscape will look like I'm 2042. I'd the economy is very bad and DVC has made its final decent into just another timeshare, current owners may be offered a bit of a discount.