Disney at the Oscars: 2019!

Discussion in 'Disney Movies, Books, TV and Music' started by Luxurious_Lumiere, Sep 17, 2018.

  1. BrianL

    BrianL Doom Buggy Driver

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    I just do not get the hype for Spider-Man. Granted I haven't seen it, but I find the animation style to be absolutely hideous, with unappealing looking characters and choppy animation, which I realize was done on purpose. I think it's a total failure though if they were trying to capture the "feel" of a comic book. I've read comics for 30 years - that's not how I see them. Granted, I have no idea regarding the story on this one, though it doesn't seem like anything too special, but for the art-direction alone I would give it no awards.
     
  2. pigletliz

    pigletliz DIS Veteran

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    Incredibles 2 was predictable within about 15 minutes, but still enjoyable. (Team Edna!) I just thought the Spider-Man movie was a overall a better film with a better story. Granted, I am not a comic book fan. Just kind of sucked in via Marvel because the rest of my family loves them.
     
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  4. BrianL

    BrianL Doom Buggy Driver

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    Well, it's not the story I'm really criticizing, it's the look of the film which is just so very offputting to me, so much so that I can't stand it. After decades of comic book reading, all superhero movies are pretty predictable to me.
     
  5. Luxurious_Lumiere

    Luxurious_Lumiere Earning My Ears

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    What a Golden Globes ceremony! As usual they threw in plenty of quirky surprises. Here are my thoughts on how it affects the race.

    My dear Disney lovers...Mary Poppins is in trouble. The HFPA is a group that love them some musicals, and a feel good tuner like Mary Poppins Returns seemed built to perform well with this awards body. But it went home with nothing. Emily Blunt was predicted to win Comedy/Musical Actress, but lost to Olivia Colman from The Favourite. The win was never a slam dunk, but Blunt has a strong track record with the Globes, including one win. Alas, Colman has been on a roll recently and plenty of awards bodies have jumped at the chance to reward one of the best character actresses in the business as she finally gets the opportunity to have a major film role. Expect Disney to go into overdrive with their campaign for Blunt to keep her spot in the Oscar lineup. MPR also lost best Score, which pundits assumed it would take in a cakewalk. It lost to First Man, a film that wasn't even nominated for either top film prize. (and while I found the music in First Man affecting...Justin Hurwitz basically used the same melody lines he had in La La Land so I'm surprised no one has clocked him for that).

    And as I previously pointed out...Animated Feature is primed for an upset. It just happened at the Globes with Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse besting assumed frontrunner Incredibles 2. Hollywood is abuzz about Spidey right now, and the positive reviews and word of mouth is happening right when awards voters are filling out their ballots. If they can keep the momentum going, the originality and wit of this script should be able to overtake the Disney/Pixar sequels.

    Black Panther is still in a good spot. It didn't win anything at the Globes, but it wasn't expected to. Main cast members did get their "Wakanda Forever" moment on stage, with a package that highlighted the films emotional pull. And this is a film that should do well in the Oscars' preferential ballot for Best Picture. Aka, even if its not your #1, its probably your #2-4. And if the newly appointed frontrunners start taking heat, Black Panther is sitting there as a great, crowd pleasing alternative that voters can agree on.

    That's what is important to note about the Globes. They aren't important because of who is voting on them. It's not an industry award. Its just the 90 members of the HFPA voting (there is only one member who is also an Oscar voter, so really no crossover between the voting bodies here). What the Globes do for films is publicity, and that's where their importance to the Oscar race lies. Hollywood gets to look at who wins and who loses at the Globes and see how that feels. Do we like this person/film as a winner? Do we feel sad that so and so didnt get to come up to the podium? What feels good? Those Globes acceptance speeches are sort of like Oscar auditions. For instance, most predicted the celeb-obsessed HFPA would fawn over Gaga and give her Drama Actress in addition to Song. But they went for Glenn Close, and boy did Close nail her Oscar audition. A powerful speech that had the audience roaring with applause and a standing ovation. In that instant, she overtook Gaga in the awards race and is back in contention for the Oscar win. I expect her peers in SAG will fall in line next.

    The two picture winners, Green Book and mega-surprise Bohemian Rhapsody, will now have huge targets on their backs. Think pieces will start today, and not stop, about how neither film deserves to be named the best of the year. Not inventive enough. Not woke enough. Not enough. Backlash has already been formulating against Green Book about how the movie has a white savior complex. Plenty will switch their Oscar Best Picture prediction to Green Book after last night, but I don't think the film is strong enough to survive the criticism that will be thrown at it. Some of the criticism is valid, some is not based in reality, but it doesnt matter. It's already there. (Doesn't mean it will go home completely empty handed at the Oscars though. I still think Mahershala Ali looks good for Supporting Actor).

    All that's to say is that several films skirted through the Globes not winning, or not winning too much that they drew focus. And If the twitter mobs come for Green Book and Bohemian Rhapsody (and trust me they will), films like Black Panther and BlacKkKlansman and Roma are patiently waiting in the wings. They have plenty of respect, and they may emerge as the stealth Oscar winner. (This is how Moonlight took down La La Land, how The Shape of Water took down Three Billboards. The presumed frontrunners in those years werent able to survive their divisiveness on the Oscar preferential ballot). I think I'm keeping A Star is Born out front for now. Losing almost all its categories at the Globes may have been the best thing to happen to the movie in terms of its Oscar chances. Cooper and Gaga have been charming everyone on the circuit, and I think some voters may have been surprised it didnt win more, which will maybe make them think it SHOULD win more in the end. In any case, ASIB doesn't have the target on its back that I expected it to after last night, which keeps it competitive.

    In non-Globes news, three more guilds announced their nominees today. The Writers guild (WGA), Film Editors (ACE), and Art Directors (ADG, lines up with the Production Design Oscar category). The guilds are important for the opposite reason of the Globes: these are industry members who have crossover voters with the Academy.

    Black Panther did very well, netting a WGA nom for Adapted Screenplay (alongside BlacKkKlansman, Can You Ever Forgive Me?, If Beale Street Could Talk, and A Star is Born). Important to note is that the WGA has very strict eligibility rules and top Oscar contenders are always out of the running. In this category, Leave No Trace was not WGA eligible, so it does have a chance to bump Black Panther at the Oscars (there is more focus on script and character in that film than the action heavy Marvel flick) but still this is a good showing for Wakanda. Black Panther also landed an ADG nom for Production Design - Fantasy. Shockingly, Black Panther missed with ACE (Bohemian Rhapsody somehow took its place) despite split drama/comedy categories for their editing awards.

    Mary Poppins Returns was nominated at the ADG in the Fantasy category (alongside Black Panther), while Incredibles 2 and Ralph Breaks the Internet both landed in the ADG's animated category.

    Updated Oscar rankings:

    1. A Star is Born
    2. Roma
    3. Black Panther
    4. BlacKkKlansman
    5. Green Book
    6. The Favourite
    7. Bohemian Rhapsody
    8. Vice
    9. If Beale Street Could Talk
    10. Mary Poppins Returns

    11. First Man
    12. A Quiet Place
    13. Eighth Grade
    14. Crazy Rich Asians
    15. Can You Ever Forgive Me?
    16. First Reformed
    17. Leave No Trace
    18. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
    19. Mary Queen of Scots
    20. Widows

    (Those first 8 films look very solid at this point. Is that the lineup, or will there be room for a 9th BP nominee? As I mentioned before, its very hard to get the math to work for 10 nominees.)
     
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  6. pigletliz

    pigletliz DIS Veteran

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    Thanks for your continued insight!
     
  7. Luxurious_Lumiere

    Luxurious_Lumiere Earning My Ears

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    It's a big day for the guilds! The Directors Guild (DGA) announced their all-important nominations today. They are:

    Best Director
    Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born
    Alfonso Cuaron, Roma
    Peter Farrelly, Green Book
    Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman
    Adam McKay, Vice

    First Time Director
    Bo Burnham, Eighth Grade
    Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born
    Carlos Lopez Estrada, Blindspotting
    Matthew Heineman, A Private War
    Boots Riley, Sorry to Bother You

    As you can see from the above, Ryan Coogler sadly did not make the cut for Black Panther. Honestly I'm shocked, as I thought the DGA would jump on board that train. Many in the industry thought he should have been a nominee for Fruitvale Station, and the phenomenon that is Black Panther is the perfect chance to invite him back into the fold. There's no way around it, this absolutely hurts Black Panther's Best Picture chances. Will it still get nominated? Yes. But a path to victory just became much more difficult without the director mentioned here.

    All hope is not lost. There are a few exceptions, but MOST years the DGA lines up with 4/5 of the Oscar nominees for Best Director. That means it is likely that someone from the DGA lineup will fallout. But the Oscars have a habit of nominating a director with a more distinct style in that 5th spot. Like when they replaced the DGA nom Martin McDonagh for Three Billboards with Paul Thomas Anderson for Phantom Thread. So I would say if the Academy replaces one of these (probably Farrelly or McKay) it would be for someone like Yorgos Lanthimos (The Favourite) or Barry Jenkins (If Beale Street Could Talk).

    If Coogler can't get an Oscar nom for Director, Black Panther would have overcome a huge stat to win Best Picture. In the history of the Oscars, only three films have ever won Best Picture without a corresponding Best Director nomination: Argo (dir. Ben Affleck, 2013), Driving Miss Daisy (dir. Bruce Beresford, 1989), and Grand Hotel (dir. Edmund Goulding, 1932). TRIVIA: Grand Hotel is also the only Best Picture winner ever to win that top award despite NO other nominations!

    Two other Guilds announced their nominations

    Cinema Audio Society (CAS). This is the sound mixers guild so it is a good barometer for the Sound Mixing Oscar.

    Best Sound Mixing
    A Quiet Place
    A Star is Born
    Black Panther
    Bohemian Rhapsody
    First Man

    This went as expected for me except for the glaring omission of Mary Poppins Returns. If the Oscars differ at all, I suspect it will be in Mary's favor. The Sound Mixing category has a history of favoring musicals or music driven films. I would personally eliminate Bohemian Rhapsody to put in Mary, but that film is on an undeniable hot streak. MPR however had to mix live singing, recorded singing, instrumentals, and on set sound. A tall order, and it turned out glorious. Maybe it takes out Black Panther or A Quiet Place instead Bohemian Rhapsody? I dunno, it's just hard to imagine that film missing this category.

    Cinematography Society (ASC). Cinematographer's guild.

    Best Cinematography
    Alfonso Cuaron, Roma
    Matthew Libatique, A Star is Born
    Robbie Ryan, The Favourite
    Linus Sandgren, First Man
    Lukasz Zal, Cold War

    Spotlight Award
    Joshua James Richards, The Rider
    Giorgi Shvelidze, Naame
    Frank van den Eeden, Girl

    Their 5 for cinematography look like they could definitely line up with the Oscars. The shakiest of course would be Cold War since it's a foreign film (but unlike Roma, it's a foreign film unlikely to compete in Best Picture). Still, Zal was previously nominated in this category for the foreign film Ida. So it stands to reason that this branch will vote for him again, with yet another black and white stunner.

    If any of the five dont end up with an Oscar nomination, the next likeliest in line are Barry Jenkins for If Beale Street Could Talk or Rachel Morrison for Black Panther. Jenkins' film looks gorgeous, though many have noted it lacks some of the flair and innovation he used in Moonlight. Perhaps that's why he just fell short here (Beale Street "just falling short" seems to be a recurring theme this awards season). Last year, Rachel Morrison became the first ever woman nominated for the Cinematography Oscar for her work on Mudbound. She does an outstanding job on Black Panther (the neat visual trick of the camera floating upside down as Kilmonger becomes king, and the world literally is turned upside down, is one of the coolest shots of the year imo). But she is still bound to certain visual cues and style choices to make Black Panther "fit" in the Marvel universe. And I think that may ultimately hold her back here.

    It would be a dream for The Rider to show up in Cinematography at the Oscars. Its a small film, probably not everyone's cup of tea, but it looks absolutely gorgeous. I'm really happy the ASC named it in their spotlight category.

    And as I wrap up this long post: remember when I said I was keeping A Star is Born out front even after the Golden Globes defeat? Thus far it is the only film to not miss a single guild nomination. That doesn't mean its absolutely winning Best Picture, but it's clear the industry is responding to this film in a major way. It's still firmly in the race to win Best Picture, alongside Roma, BlacKkKlansman, Green Book, and Black Panther.
     
  8. Luxurious_Lumiere

    Luxurious_Lumiere Earning My Ears

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    After a bit of Disney disappointment with the DGA noms, I thought I'd highlight a category that looks to be very Disney friendly this year: Visual Effects.

    As I mentioned previously, the Visual Effects branch is one of several branches that whittles down contenders into a shortlist of finalists for nominations. Those ten shortlisted films participate in a visual effects "bake-off" presentation. The Visual Effects teams put together a 10 minute reel of footage highlighting the effects work, and a short Q&A follows. The effects supervisor gets to do about a 3 minute intro to the presentation. And in the past, we've seen major films skunked due to a weak presentation or poorly edited reel. And on the flipside, a film can get a surprise nomination with an outstanding presentation that surprised people (Deepwater Horizon is a great recent example. The presentation was engaging and exciting, and it highlighted that many of the fire effects were created with cgi. Something the effects artists in the room didnt even realize before being told, so obviously very impressive).

    This year, the 10 finalists are: Ant-Man and the Wasp, Avengers: Infinity War, Black Panther, Christopher Robin, First Man, Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom, Mary Poppins Return, Ready Player One, Solo: A Star Wars Story, and Welcome to Marwen.

    If you're interested in a description of how the bakeoff screenings wenta few days ago, Will Mavity has an excellent rundown here: https://www.nextbestpicture.com/latest/takeaways-from-the-2019-visual-effects-bake-off

    Based on his and others reports, I think we have 3 guaranteed nominees: Avengers: Infinity War, Black Panther, and Ready Player One.

    Avengers and RPO are both heavy on, and reliant on, their visual effects. Both gave great presentations that got positive reactions. Black Panther perhaps didn't have the most amazing presentation in the world, but offered surprising tidbits on how they created the CGI environments. And the film got applause upon starting the presentation. That's HUGE, and shows there is clear love for this film in the industry.

    Likewise there are 3 movies that are at the bottom: Christopher Robin, Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom, and Ant-Man and the Wasp.

    A chunk of people thought an intermission/break was happening right before Jyrassic Wrold's presentation (the host announced they were at the halfway point) so many voters got up to use the bathroom and missed the whole thing. Very unfortunate. Christopher Robin sounds like the CGI was actually quite challenging to get right, but will ultimately be undermined by a poor presentation. And while the visual effects branch has warmed up more to the Marvel teams (at the beginning of the MCU, they were sort of "outsiders" in terms of the Hollywood VFX world), I still dont think they will let Marvel claim 3 of 5 nomination slots.

    That leaves 4 films fighting for 2 open slots.
    I'm going to go with Solo getting one, likely bumping First Man out of contention. First Man made a big deal about its practical effects, including an impressive LED screen setup to display space in real time outside the cockpit windows. BUT then Solo went after it, and also used that LED screen tech for its flight sequences (coupled with an emotional anecdote about Donald Glover reacting to experiencing the "hyperspace" effect while shooting). Not only did it steal First Man's thunder there, but it also surprised voters with the amount of practical creatures created and featured a great mix of cgi and practical effects blended throughout.

    The last slot is likely Mary Poppins Returns vs. Welcome to Marwen. Mary Poppins probably has the least amount of effects out of all the contenders, but it has a lot of goodwill. People clearly responded to the nostalgia aspect of the film and ate up the 2D musical sequence, and the challenges it created to make it all look right. But the artists behind Marwen highlighted that they actually created a whole new digital lens camera system, which allowed them to pull CGI creations in and out of focus. The way shifting actual camera lenses can make objects/actors in the foreground gain or lose focus in a scene. Talk about catnip to a room full of effects artists! They also had the benefit of going last, so itll stick in voters minds.

    Which one gets in? Well one enormous shift in voting procedures this year is that the branch will now vote during the regular Oscar nomination voting period (which started yesterday). In every year past, the branch filled out a ballot directly after the presentations finished and voted in the room. The change this year is HUGE. Because they now had 2 days to sit with their decision instead of voting off of immediate reactions (or longer. No one is required to vote on the very first day Oscar voting opens, but many do). Had they voted in the room, I think Marwen would definitely get in. It was a very impressive presentation. However, the film received nearly unanimous negative reviews. Will the extra time allow members to think "you know what, the effects were great but I just dont like that movie". That would seem to favor Mary Poppins, a movie more generally well liked. But it's hard to know. Those last 2 slots are basically a toss up.

    If I had to rank them now:

    1. Avengers: Infinity War
    2. Ready Player One
    3. Black Panther
    4. Solo
    5. Mary Poppins Returns

    6. Welcome to Marwen
    7. First Man

    8. Ant-Man and the Wasp
    9. Christopher Robin
    10. Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom
     
  9. supernova

    supernova DIS Veteran

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    Glad I wasn't the only one who felt that way. Seeing how hellbent Disney is about shoving females down our throats lately (a movement I refer to as "Hey, We Count Too!"), I leaned over to my wife and told her, "You know that the sister is most likely going to end up being the villain, right?" A female lead protagonist battling a female lead antagonist. OK Disney. We get it. Women count too. Whatever. The whole damn thing feels forced, not natural. It's like Kathleen Kennedy seeing how many women she can cram in on screen to a Star Wars, and now the release of Captain Marvel in the Marvel franchise.
     
  10. pigletliz

    pigletliz DIS Veteran

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    lol I didn't even think it was that deep. I have no problem with women lead characters because, well, we do make up a nice chunk of society. I just thought it was a little ( a LOT) lazy with the storytelling. For the amount of money invested in the project, they could have done so much more.

    I haven't seen a trailer for Captain Marvel, so I'm not really feeling any warm fuzzies towards it. I will watch to see if it rises to the level of Captain America, Iron Man, Doctor Strange, etc. In other words, did they make a fun movie with good characters.
     
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  11. Luxurious_Lumiere

    Luxurious_Lumiere Earning My Ears

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    Agreed @pigletliz I hadnt heard anyone complain about a female protagonist in Incredibles 2, just that the script felt overly familiar. (I have no idea how including female characters in movies counts as "shoving it down our throats"...). Incredibles 2 was still enjoyable for me, and I thought they captured the family dynamics well. But in terms of what should win the Animated Feature Oscar? Into the Spider-Verse would be my pick. The script is fun and inventive, it has a gorgeous and unique art style, its funny and entertaining while still maintaining a strong emotional core. An awesome film all around.
     
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  12. Guidman

    Guidman Earning My Ears

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    Finally caught up in the past week and saw Mary Poppins Returns and Into the Spider-Verse. Loved Into the Spider-Verse and Mary Poppins was very good too. Actually enjoyed the score in Mary Poppins more than the original music. Hope to see it get nominated in Costume as well as Production Design.
     
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  13. supernova

    supernova DIS Veteran

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    Hmmm... let's see:

    Ms. Incredible and Evelyn Deavor
    Rey, Jyn Erson, Vice Admiral Holdo, Rose Tico, Captain Phasma (for whatever the hell reason Kathleen Kennedy felt that needed to be a female), L3-37 (girl power!), and Enfys Nest turning out to be a young female character for no reason at all

    You know... like that. Almost as annoying as Disney turning the Star Wars franchise into the UN.
     
    Last edited: Jan 12, 2019
  14. Luxurious_Lumiere

    Luxurious_Lumiere Earning My Ears

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    Listing a few female characters and saying that is evidence that Disney is "shoving" some agenda down our throats (instead of you know, just including women in stories because half of the world is female) is absolutely ridiculous. And with the addition of that UN comment I really have nothing more to say to you. So I'm done entertaining the thought and I'm bringing it back to the topic of this thread.

    The Critics Choice Awards (BFCA) handed out their awards last night. Roma was the big winner of the evening with 4 wins: Best Picture, Best Director (Alfonso Cuaron), Cinematography, and Foreign Language Film. Can it also win the Oscar? Potentially, but keep in mind that the BFCA does not use the preferential ballot that the Oscars use for best Picture.

    Roma has 3 major strikes against it when it comes to claiming the top Oscar: its a foreign language film, in black and white, and from Netflix. Now the first two points have exceptions. A scant few foreign films have competed in the Best Picture Race (Z, Crouching Tiger Hidden Dragon, Amour). And black and white films can also succeed on rare occasions (such as Best Picture winner The Artist). The Netflix bias however, is very real in the Academy. They are very reluctant to embrace the streaming service because they see it as threatening the experience of going out to a theater. However, Netflix if playing it very smart. Roma is still in theaters (there are plenty of screenings in voter heavy LA and New York), they are spending an insane amount of advertising on it in those two cities, and they are pushing industry favorite Alfonso Cuaron like crazy. I worry that it may not be enough people's number one choice, but the difficulty in crafting the movie is obvious and there is no shortage of love for Cuaron in the industry. So perhaps it is everyone's #2 if not their top choice?

    Mary Poppins Returns didn't fare well at this ceremony. Marc Shaiman once again lost Best Score to Justin Hurwitz from First Man. Song predictably went to 'Shallow' from A Star is Born. MPR then lost 3 below the line awards to another mouse house production. Black Panther claimed Costume Design, Production Design, and Visual Effects. Vice stole the Makeup/Hairstyling award from Black Panther, but this could be a good indicator that Black Panther is a major threat for the design categories.
    And over in Animated Feature, Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse once again bested both Disney/Pixar sequels.

    Important to remember with this awards body is that the BFCA has zero overlap with Oscar voters. The Critics Choice prides themselves on trying to correctly predict where they THINK the Oscars will go. This is also why they allow themselves 6-7 nomination slots in most categories. More chances to "get it right" when predicting the Oscar nominees, who only have 5. In their 23 year history of doling out awards, they have only correctly predicted 14 Oscar Best Picture winners. So like the Globes, it can give a shot in the arm to certain candidates by getting them up in front of an audience. First Man got a boost (it won Film Editing over Roma in addition to that Score win) as well as If Beale Street Could Talk (Barry Jenkins won Adapted Screenplay, while Regina King claimed her second major Supporting Actress win. She needed this after getting cruelly snubbed by SAG and BAFTA). But we must turn our attention to industry awards to see where the chips really lie. PGA will be very important because it uses a preferential ballot. If Roma can win there, then the race might be done. It wins the Oscar. But if A Star is Born or BlacKkKlansman takes the PGA then we still have one wild and crazy race on our hands. Today is the final day of Oscar voting, we will know soon enough.
     
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  15. Luxurious_Lumiere

    Luxurious_Lumiere Earning My Ears

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    Also, my mention in their about the BAFTA made me realize I never discussed that. They can give some tea leaves, but you must account for the different tastes between the Brits and Americans. For instance, The Favourite led in nominations there, like it was bound to do, being a British film. Black Panther was skunked in the Best Picture field, because the BAFTA are incredibly adverse to superhero fare.

    Still, the BAFTA contains about 500 members who are also Academy members and will vote on the Oscar. One category where the BAFTA could be foretelling doom and gloom for Disney is in Best Actress. Emily Blunt was snubbed in favor of Viola Davis from Widows.

    Best Actress has three assumed locks: Glenn Close (The Wife), Olivia Colman (The Favorite), and Lady Gaga (A Star is Born). Melissa McCarthy (Can You Ever Forgive Me?) and Emily Blunt (Mary Poppins Returns) are assumed to join them. But since McCarthy and Blunt are seen as having little chance of winning, they are the vulnerable ones. And Blunt proved just how vulnerable she is by missing with the Brits. There are 3 actresses who could take her spot.
    The critics have thrown their weight behind Toni Collette (Hereditary), who had a BFCA nomination and many wins from small regional groups. Nominations from horror films are rare, but Daniel Kaluuya managed last year for Get Out, and Kathy Bates won for Misery. Hereditary is essentially an acting showcase for Collette, and her only other nomination is from a horror film (The Sixth Sense, in supporting) so she shouldn't be counted out.
    If Roma is as strong as it looks, then newcomer Yalitza Aparicio could sneak in. She was reportedly not eligible for SAG, but did get a nom from the BFCA. It feels like she should have popped up in more places if she was going to contend for an Oscar, and Im not sure how many actors will back someone who had never acted before. But this would be a case of a performer getting swept along with the love for a film. And Roma is clearly beloved by the industry.
    Then we have Viola Davis. The industry mostly shrugged its shoulders at Widows and forgot about it (shame, its an excellent film). So I assumed Davis' chances were dead. But she is suddenly revived at the last moment by BAFTA. Davis has immense respect and admiration among her peers, so if the buzz is fading from Mary Poppins, she could overtake Blunt at the last second.

    Still Blunt has nominations from SAG, Critics Choice, and Golden Globes. That's a very good showing. So I'm still predicting her, though I'm very nervous about it. She's come close to Oscar nominations several times (Devil Wears Prada, Young Victoria, Into the Woods), but always come up short. So it would be nice to finally see her land one.

    My current Best Actress rankings:

    1. Glenn Close, The Wife
    2. Olivia Colman, The Favourite
    3. Lady Gaga, A Star is Born
    4. Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
    5. Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns

    6. Viola Davis, Widows
    7. Toni Collette, Hereditary
    8. Yalitza Aparicio, Roma
    9. Elsie Fisher, Eighth Grade
    10. Nicole Kidman, Destroyer
     
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  16. Luxurious_Lumiere

    Luxurious_Lumiere Earning My Ears

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    Alright everyone, exciting news! I had some spare time today and created something special for you all to vote on. Introducing: The Disney Oscars!

    A survey monkey link is below and will allow you to cast your ballot. It's just like the real Oscars, except the only contenders at these awards are movies from the House of Mouse. This round is to decide the nominations. Voting for this round will last until January 21st at 6pm EST. I will announce the nominations the next day January 22nd, same days as the actual Oscar nominations.

    For the Best Picture category, I will be using a preferential ballot vote. So RANK your TOP 5 choices, with 1 being your top choice. Unfortunately, Survey Monkey doesn't allow me to limit these ranked responses unless I force y'all to type in answers manually and I didn't want to make everyone type everything out. So please stick to just ranking your top 5. This is how many slots Oscar voters get. And I'm very curious to see how results play out using this voting method.

    Other important voting tidbits: Please vote for FIVE (5) nominees in Director, Screenplay, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, and Voice Over Performance. Due to the limited amount of contenders, please vote for THREE (3) nominees in Lead Actor and Lead Actress.

    Here's your ballot Dis folk! Vote vote vote!
    Is there anyone you want to start a "for your consideration" campaign for? =)

    https://www.surveymonkey.com/r/LPQ38NJ

    After I announce nominations based off this survey, I'll post a second ballot to vote on the winners. They will be unveiled the day before the Oscars! I hope you all have fun voting for your favorites. :earsboy:
     
    Last edited: Jan 15, 2019
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  17. BrianL

    BrianL Doom Buggy Driver

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    I love it! I voted.
     
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  18. Luxurious_Lumiere

    Luxurious_Lumiere Earning My Ears

    Joined:
    Oct 6, 2017
    Messages:
    59
    Thanks @BrianL !!!

    Also
    1.) There is an "other" option for write in votes on the two supporting categories and voice over performance. I tried my best to include all the major players, but if you feel strongly that I've left out someone important let me know or use the "other" box.
    2.) I included motion capture performances in the supporting categories rather than voice over, since those actors were on set and provided their characters' physicality, reactions, etc. IE: if you're looking for Josh Brolin (Thanos) or Pheobe Waller-Bridge (L3-37), they are under Supporting Actor/Actress.
     
    pigletliz likes this.
  19. Luxurious_Lumiere

    Luxurious_Lumiere Earning My Ears

    Joined:
    Oct 6, 2017
    Messages:
    59
    Yesterday the Visual Effects Society (VES) announced their guild nominations.

    Visual Effects in a Photoreal Feature
    Avengers: Infinity War
    Christopher Robin
    Ready Player One
    Solo: A Star Wars Story
    Welcome to Marwen

    Supporting Visual Effects in a Photoreal Feature
    12 Strong
    Bird Box
    Bohemian Rhapsody
    First Man
    Outlaw King

    The real shocker here is Black Panther missing that top category. However, the bakeoff presentations I previously reported on are an even better prognosticator than these guild nominations, at least historically. So based on the combined info we have for the Visual Effects category: Infinity War and Ready Player One are your two locks. Black Panther should get in based on pure love of the movie. Solo looks solid based on a surprising presentation with "wow" factor, and a great mix of cgi and practical effects. I have a feeling Welcome to Marwen could beat out Mary Poppins Returns for that last slot (Poppins was also skunked at this guild).

    Another group of nominations that came out were the USC Scripter nominations. This group of journalists, academics, and industry professionals honors adapted screenplays. While not a guild like the WGA, it does have modest amounts of Oscar voter crossover. And though it can be spotty in predicting eventual Oscar nominees, the past 8 Oscar winners for Adapted Screenplay were also nominated here. The Scripters cite both the writers of the original work as well as those behind the adaptation.

    Best Adapted Screenplay
    *Black Panther, Ryan Coogler and Joe Robert
    -based on characters by Stan Lee and Jack Kirby
    *Can You Ever Forgive Me?, Nicole Holofcener and Jeff Whity
    -based on author Lee Israel's novel
    *The Death of Stalin, Armanda Iannuci, Ian Martin, David Schnedier
    -based on graphic novel by Fabien Nury and Thierry Robin
    *If Beale Street Could Talk, Barry Jenkins
    -based on poem by James Baldwin
    *Leave No Trace, Debra Granik and Anne Rossellini
    -based on novel by Peter Rock

    The massive miss here is WGA nom BlacKkKlansman (who many have predicted would win the corresponding Oscar). A Star is Born is a WGA nominee but was not eligible for the Scripter b/c the Scripters only honor films adapted from other source material (ASIB was adapted from prior films). I expect both to make the Oscar lineup despite this stumbling block. If Beale Street Could Talk and Can You Ever Forgive Me? showed up at both precursors, so they look good for a nomination. Then there are a whole lot of contenders duking it out. I expect its probably Black Panther vs. Leave No Trace. I must admit Im personally rooting for Leave No Trace (which was ineligible for WGA) in this category because its an incredible film that isn't getting the awards traction it deserves. But Black Panther could make the cut due to its popularity, and the fact that writer/director is now unlikely to make the Best Director lineup. But Black Panther missed WGA, so the final slot seems quite up in the air.

    Also, don't forget to vote for the Disney Oscars!!!
    Someone reached out to ask if it was anonymous, and YES. It's completely anonymous. I specifically used Survey Monkey because it does not ask for name, email, or any information. Just click the link, vote for your favorites and submit!
    https://www.surveymonkey.com/r/LPQ38NJ
     
  20. Truxi

    Truxi Mouseketeer

    Joined:
    Jun 25, 2018
    Messages:
    86
    While I have nothing against sequels (to this day I still feel like Kung Fu Panda 2 was robbed because that was just a gorgeous movie that did a good job of building without retreading), I'm inclined to agree.

    Besides, Spider-Man absolutely deserves the award this year. It's more than just a good movie--it's a good movie that pushes the medium of animation in a new direction, and the Oscars really should reward that.

    ...
    but then we all know that most of the Academy voters don't bother to watch the animated movies and just hand it over to Disney or Pixar.
     
  21. Luxurious_Lumiere

    Luxurious_Lumiere Earning My Ears

    Joined:
    Oct 6, 2017
    Messages:
    59
    Well here's some interesting background on the animation branch of the Academy @Truxi

    So when the Oscars vote on nominees, each branch votes for their own categories (directors for best director, actors for the 4 acting races, writers for the 2 screenplay races, etc) plus Best Picture. And then when deciding on winners, the entire Academy gets to vote on every category. So this often resulted in smaller independent films popping up in Animated Feature. B/c that branch didn't always care if it was a huge hit, only if it pushed the art form. That's why we have had great foreign or indie animated contenders like The Triplets of Belleville, Persepolis, Secret of Kells, The Wind Rises, and Song of the Sea. But of course, Disney/Pixar has more wide spread appeal from these films, so once it came time for the entire academy to vote on the winners, they were usually defeated by something more popular. And those wins are important because if the winner (producer/director) was not previously an Academy member, a they become one with a win. So it stands to reason that the Disney/Pixar employees continually added to the Academy via wins will be inclined to vote for something from their company.

    Last year, the rule was changed so that members NOT in the animation branch could sign up to vote on the category if they wished. This was fairly controversial. And while we still got an indie (Loving Vincent) and an emotional foreign film (The Breadwinner)....but we also now have Boss Baby and Ferdinand calling themselves Oscar nominees. Just b/c they were popular/in the media at the time. So I actually think voters WILL have seen Spider-Man, and the influx of voters outside the branch could help it win. The film is very highly regarded in Hollywood at the moment and has people talking. The film that could get the chop is everyone's assumed fifth place contender: Mirai. The Japanese film got incredible reviews and a Golden Globe nomination...but Im not confident the same people who voted for Boxx Baby will have seen this one or care. And we may end up with some trifle such as Grinch or Smallfoot in there instead.

    My current predictions:
    1. Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
    2. Incredibles 2
    3. Isle of Dogs
    4. Ralph Breaks the Internet
    5. Mirai
    ---
    6. Early Man
    7. The Grinch
    8. Smallfoot
    9. Ruben Brandt, Collector
    10. Tito and the Birds
     

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