Crowd Level predicitions 12/17-12/24

[Klayfish]

Just wanted to send some love your way. Klayfish is always super helpful on the boards. My guess is the laugh was at the miscalculation of Touring Plans and not directed at you. I hope you had a magical trip despite the crowd level!

Thanks. Yes, I was just laughing at TP predicting low crowd levels during Christmas season. I definitely understand why people would want to have some way to know how crowded the park is going to be before they get there. If there was some way at all I could know that, I'd be all in. So I do understand the attraction to them. However...and it's just IMO, I don't think crowd calendars have any accuracy value whatsoever. It's impossible, beyond the obvious stuff (holidays are busy type things). No offense at all meant to you, AnneK.

 

[HopperFan]

You're not really surprised though, are you?
I would disregard any weather forecast, good or bad, this far out.

I'm getting as far away from WDW as I can, Atlanta area here I come.

Only took a few holiday trips for us to know .... that was no fun. Enjoy your ATL visit!

We've been here since 12/6. Whatever your projected crowd level is just go ahead and add +3 to it, because that's what it has ended up being for us so far. It is CROWDED. Advanced planning has been a life saver. Every sit down restaurant we have been to has been denying all walk-ins. Touring plans had originally said our entire stay was supposed to be only level 3 or 4 crowds, but it is so much more than that.

That was a very poor estimate on their part considering the crowds that have been at Disney of late.

Thanks. Yes, I was just laughing at TP predicting low crowd levels during Christmas season. I definitely understand why people would want to have some way to know how crowded the park is going to be before they get there. If there was some way at all I could know that, I'd be all in. So I do understand the attraction to them. However...and it's just IMO, I don't think crowd calendars have any accuracy value whatsoever. It's impossible, beyond the obvious stuff (holidays are busy type things). No offense at all meant to you, AnneK.

THIS^ Putting out there 3-4 (out of 10) anytime between Thanksgiving and New Years week is just head shaking. Just doing their math capacity makes a 3-4 is almost non-existent these days. TP is great at some things, like I use them for hotel info ... not much else. I would never book or plan around their calendars ... updating now is a bit unhelpful for those who already have reservations, ADR and FP+ with no chance to change.

 

[bladiator]

That was a very poor estimate on their part considering the crowds that have been at Disney of late.

I was there from 11/28-12/10 and I felt like the latter half of the week was great for crowds personally. 3-4 seemed doable. That being said, I didn't do HS very often and usually was at EP or MK on party days.

 

[pmaurer74]

We go that week every year and it is fine. Will be there Dec. 14-20 and I expect the same. I hope I am right. What was the change in the crowd predictions? What were they?

 

[Happy_2_B]

THIS^ Putting out there 3-4 (out of 10) anytime between Thanksgiving and New Years week is just head shaking. Just doing their math capacity makes a 3-4 is almost non-existent these days. TP is great at some things, like I use them for hotel info ... not much else. I would never book or plan around their calendars ... updating now is a bit unhelpful for those who already have reservations, ADR and FP+ with no chance to change.

We just got back a little over a week ago, and they were right on most days- and twice crowds were lower than predicted at the parks we went to- and twice they were higher. We were expecting a +1/2 based on actual reported crowds over the month prior to when we arrived, and were pleasantly surprised. We send actual wait time data to the Lines app when we stand in a queue- and the LONGEST line we stood in all week was 21 minutes- timed and accurate. MK was empty on the morning we went there- it was a 1/10 day (actual- it was supposed to be a 3/10)- and there was no one there. We have gone at this time of year many, many times- and rarely stand in a long line.

I was there from 11/28-12/10 and I felt like the latter half of the week was great for crowds personally. 3-4 seemed doable. That being said, I didn't do HS very often and usually was at EP or MK on party days.

The people that go during these times of year generally have pleasant experiences. I agree with you- crowds were low overall (we only had one day where it was a bit too crowded for our tastes).

 

[PrincessWithABlaster]

We got updates for May too. I knew when I booked it it was too rosy. They’ve updated closer to our trips before - this is the furthest I remember them revising up.

EDIT: I just looked at the details and HS got revised up significantly- +3 or +4 most days the first week of May. Levels higher than AK. I need to go check out the rumor forum to see if anyone is predicting that ToyStoryland is going to open before Memorial Day. Hmmmm.

 

[SarahC97]

We got updates for May too. I knew when I booked it it was too rosy. They’ve updated closer to our trips before - this is the furthest I remember them revising up.

EDIT: I just looked at the details and HS got revised up significantly- +3 or +4 most days the first week of May. Levels higher than AK. I need to go check out the rumor forum to see if anyone is predicting that ToyStoryland is going to open before Memorial Day. Hmmmm.

I'm not sure it's toy story, I think it's just because that park has so few options right now. It doubled the predictions for my HAS day the first Friday in February, which isn't normally a popular time to go. Who knows?

 

[sponica]

We got updates for May too. I knew when I booked it it was too rosy. They’ve updated closer to our trips before - this is the furthest I remember them revising up.

EDIT: I just looked at the details and HS got revised up significantly- +3 or +4 most days the first week of May. Levels higher than AK. I need to go check out the rumor forum to see if anyone is predicting that ToyStoryland is going to open before Memorial Day. Hmmmm.

Well that thing better not open before memorial day, I'm only planning one morning at HS (just so I can ride TSMM and hubby can ride RRC and TOT).

 

[LSUmiss]

Dec 27-Jan 3rd will be our first visit during the busiest season. What impact (if any) will there be for our table service reservations and FPs? Will it just be longer thru security to get into the park and walking slower as the park is more crowded? Or will there also be longer waits for all transportation all week or something else I can't think of. Obviously waiting in lines without FP will be drastically longer than we are used to.

Unfortunately, there will be longer waits for everything...security, park entrance, transportation, snack carts, bathrooms,
Etc. Your current FP won’t be affected (other than FP lines will be longer than usual), but the 4th fast pass will be much harder to come by. The hardest day will be 12/31. We did our 3 scheduled FPs only & scheduled ADRs. Counter service is also a nightmare so we scheduled 2 table service for most days. We went 12/29-1/3.

 

[Janet McDonald]

We go that week every year and it is fine. Will be there Dec. 14-20 and I expect the same. I hope I am right. What was the change in the crowd predictions? What were they?

First Christmas trip for us 17th-24th and now I'm stressing. It's a big change from the original predictions so very nervous now. We have planned and saved for a long time for this and I just don't want it to be as bad as actual Christmas week. You say you have gone this time every year and that it's manageable makes me feel some better.

 

[Klayfish]

First Christmas trip for us 17th-24th and now I'm stressing. It's a big change from the original predictions so very nervous now. We have planned and saved for a long time for this and I just don't want it to be as bad as actual Christmas week. You say you have gone this time every year and that it's manageable makes me feel some better.

Don't stress, just enjoy it. It's going to be busy, it's Christmas in WDW. It probably won't be quite as bad as the week between Xmas and New Years, but it's gonna be really busy. We're arriving on the 20th and staying to the 1st, so we'll be there for the thick of it. Don't fret over the "predictions", it's going to be what it's going to be. Just have the right frame of mind (i.e. don't expect to just walk onto rides, the hub in MK will be a zoo at night, etc...) and you'll have a fantastic time.

 

[SinCityMMAFan]

Don't stress, just enjoy it. It's going to be busy, it's Christmas in WDW. It probably won't be quite as bad as the week between Xmas and New Years, but it's gonna be really busy. We're arriving on the 20th and staying to the 1st, so we'll be there for the thick of it. Don't fret over the "predictions", it's going to be what it's going to be. Just have the right frame of mind (i.e. don't expect to just walk onto rides, the hub in MK will be a zoo at night, etc...) and you'll have a fantastic time.

Couldn't have said it any better myself. Too many people these days over plan for their park days and have a certain amount that they want to see and do that they truly forget to take it all in and have fun. That's why people go to Disney is to have fun!

 

[SaintsManiac]

Mobile ordering is your friend...

 

[KimiK]

Mobile ordering is your friend...

Have you used this? And can you tell me more, was it a great time saver and easy to do?

 

[Liljo22]

I got a similar update for 12/25-1/2. Almost every park is projected to be a 10 every day.

If TP had anything less than this at any point, they should be shut down. The week after Christmas is always the busiest week of the year. MK will have at least a Phase 2 closing at some point just about every day.

 

[HopperFan]

I was there from 11/28-12/10 and I felt like the latter half of the week was great for crowds personally. 3-4 seemed doable. That being said, I didn't do HS very often and usually was at EP or MK on party days.

We just got back a little over a week ago, and they were right on most days- and twice crowds were lower than predicted at the parks we went to- and twice they were higher. We were expecting a +1/2 based on actual reported crowds over the month prior to when we arrived, and were pleasantly surprised. We send actual wait time data to the Lines app when we stand in a queue- and the LONGEST line we stood in all week was 21 minutes- timed and accurate. MK was empty on the morning we went there- it was a 1/10 day (actual- it was supposed to be a 3/10)- and there was no one there. We have gone at this time of year many, many times- and rarely stand in a long line.
.

I guess it really depends on each person's interpretation of 3-4. To me that means a park should be approx a third of it's capacity. In MK that should mean fairly walk on to everything. I go fairly often and that just doesn't happen much anymore. A party capacity is at a 3.5. I put more stock in the groups who post red, green and yellow for their days.

 

[Shanti]

Wait...what? They predicted a 3-4 (whatever that actually means) crowd level during the Christmas holiday season?

This is why I hold no stock in crowd calendars.

The week after Christmas is always the busiest week of the year.

My money is actually on the week right before Christmas being worse this year, because everyone has finally internalized the message that the week after Christmas is the worst. But I'm sure they'll both be crazy crowded.

 

[pjhootch]

I don’t take any crowd predictions as gospel, but they frequently give a good basis for starting plans without having to reinvent the wheel. We are park veterans and have done some crazy holiday trips to both WDW and DL. I cringed because I was hoping crowd levels would not hit 9 the week before Christmas. I can deal with it either way- we know what to do and do not usually get worked up about much when we travel.

 

[pmaurer74]

First Christmas trip for us 17th-24th and now I'm stressing. It's a big change from the original predictions so very nervous now. We have planned and saved for a long time for this and I just don't want it to be as bad as actual Christmas week. You say you have gone this time every year and that it's manageable makes me feel some better.

It will not be as bad as Christmas week. If you see MK time changes to open early and late. The hours are still fairly normal. Last year they were at 7am. Expect the 23rd to be very packed.

 

[shanew21]

Bring it.

We’ve got everything planned out, fastpasses booked for every major ride, dinner reservations at the most popular spots, we are always there before rope drop, and we stay late.

Crowds are all about how prepared you are. The only thing I’m slightly worried about are fireworks spots.