Contract Hunt - wait for perfect amt of Points, or buy available and add-on Direct?

[IndyToThere]

Looking to get into our first DVC contract, and my wife and I have settled on what we think is best for our projected stay plans:
- x1/year stay
- 1 bedroom (my wife and I, with 10 yr old son)
- 7 night stays.
- AKL home resort
- Potential stay dates include: Fall Break (mid-Oct), Spring Break* (end of March/early April), early Dec if we can plan around our son's school schedule. Summer does not interest us with the heat, although my wife mentioned her recent stay in early Sept had very low crowds.... looking at an Oct use year, with Sept as a 2nd choice.

Based on the above, we were originally looking for 200 point contracts at AKL, with Oct (or Sept) use year. This would give us enough to get a 1BR during a mid-Oct week, and the points would be in the middle of a Standard view and a Savannah (perhaps we alternate stays with Standard/Savannah, or maybe do a Split stay between the 2 room types). But when I saw 2021 point charts, our desired Fall break moves up a slot in points, so 200 would only cover a Standard and nix our plans for a Savannah. So now I am looking at 220 or 225 contracts for those Use Years.

That all said, it would seem 200 point resale contracts are more common than 220 or 225. Which leaves me to wonder, should I:

a) Wait for the perfect contract to come along for our needs (220/225 in Oct/Sept)… get what we want, but wait for how long?
b) Get a 200 point contract now and buy 25 points Direct... get what mostly covers our needs now but pay more for those extra points (almost $2K difference for an extra $25 points direct)
c) Consider a larger 250 point contract (pay about the same as 200 resale + 25 direct and have more points for other stay ideas, but pay more down the road with extra annual MFs for points we don't necessarily have to have).

What strategy do folks here seem to use when scoping out a particular contract?

* I realize Spring break is really expensive and not sure how often we would attempt this at the point costs... might do split stays with a Studio room.

 

[EM Lawrence]

I’d go for the 250 resale personally. 25 direct is not going to get you any benefits, and you have to pay closing costs twice. It’s better to have slightly more points than you need in case the charts get adjusted against your favor again.

 

[chicagoshannon]

Yeah go for 250 unless you would want to do 125 resale and 100 direct (what it would cost you to get the blue membership card).

 

[RhodyKP]

I love spending other people's money for them, so I would also go with the 250 contract. It would give you enough points for the Spring Break trips, and give you about 50 extra points to rent out for the years you take the Fall Break trips. The rental income from those points, albeit small after taxes, would offset the additional amount you'd be paying in MFs.

 

[Deb & Bill]

Find two contracts that meet your needs adding up to 250 or so. Then if you decide you don't need all those points, you can sell one and still have the other to use less frequently. Smaller contracts are easier to resell than larger ones.

 

[Frederic Civish]

I'd go for 250 points or so. 225 to 250 point contracts should be fairly common. Always browse multiple broker websites, as long as they look reputable. Most BROKERS are indeed honest and reputable. Make sure you have enough points to stay in a Savannah View in Springtime, because your preferred view might just be that. If you have a bit extra left over every year, you can roll them over, year to year, and once in a while make an extended trip or two separate trips.

At least wait a month or two, to see whether prices are holding up, or not. I would also be willing to wait for the next 5 or 6 months to see if something PERFECT shows up. I think prices may soften a bit. 10% or 15% price decrease is probably reasonable. I also think that it should become MUCH more common to see LOADED contracts for sale, with points for this year AND next year. I think STRIPPED contracts are going to be less popular, and will have to lower their prices even more, if they want to sell. I don't see AKV dropping too low. Perhaps a few contracts in the $95 to $100 range. But they won't LIST them for that price. YOU will probably need to make a low ball offer and just say no if they won't go down. WITH THE COVID PROBLEMS, THERE WILL SOON BE PLENTY OF FISH IN THE SEA. So be a judicious fisherman.

Once you are pretty sure you can see towards the low end (and truthfully, that MIGHT not hit until next year) then you might also tell the broker, "Look, I want 250 points (or whatever) in a Sept or Oct use year, AND I want it LOADED with points, AND I am willing to offer $95 a point, RIGHT NOW." They might be aware of a few sellers who are listing their prices higher, but who might have expressed an interest, to the broker, to go lower if necessary. I have contacted brokers who had just SOLD what I was interested in (or taken offers, and I wasn't willing to wait with a secondary offer.) But when I told them my needs, they just happened to know people who were on the cusp of selling, and they contacted those people and pulled out what I needed. Also, you can always try to ask for the SELLER to not only pay closing costs, but to pay Membership Fees for the coming year. (Of course, it goes without saying that if they have actually USED the points in the coming year, then they really really really should be the ones paying the Membership Fees for THAT.)

I am not in the market for more DVC at the moment. I'm not adverse at all, but my wife keeps telling me that I spend too much money on them as it is. (I have 8 contracts). BUT, if a real killer, amazing deal comes along, at AKV (my favorite), BLT, Poly, or VGF then I will probably have to go to my wife and 'cut a deal.'

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

I'd also lean towards 250. The point charts increase that you saw is likely to happen again as DVC attempts to more evenly spread out demand over the entire year. It's very heavy demand in the fall and this was likely only their start at changes. The are limited in how much they can change points each year on any given night so they will have to do it over multiple years assuming they remain dedicated to the action.

 

[IndyToThere]

All good points above. I hadn't really entertained the thought of 250 points initially that much, but now I'm leaning towards that amount... it gives us more flexibility in our times of year to stay, and like others said if we have more than we need we can just bank year-over-year or rent out.

First offer put in. We'll see how this goes.