Concerned about the Future of the DVC resale

IMO, renting has increased the SPEED at which the resorts fill up (at least the near park resorts). Before renting got so popular ( and easy), it wasn't as necessary to book so early in the window. Now an owner has to worry about all the renters out there who may want the same time or room as he does.

So, while it's true that someone will end up in the room, it may be a renter and not you. Your fellow owner wouldn't have chosen that room or time, but his renter did, so he booked it. You lose because the demand is coming earlier than it did in the past for what you want.

It's not the only factor, but it contributes.
I think people that buy with the intention of renting out points tend to buy large point contracts on the resale market. Large point contracts are cheaper. The original owners of those contracts used them for stays in units larger than a studio. The people who now rent those points more often than not use them on studios. That creates an increased demand on studio units that didn’t exist a decade ago.
I think it is important to differentiate between demand and access. I think that both have increased because of the growing rental market, but perhaps in the past the demand existed and simply went unfulfilled due to lack of a vibrant rental marketplace. Fast forward to today and the paradigm has shifted. At one point it time it was almost exclusively owners who had access, now literally anybody has access to DVC resorts. I know it seems like I'm splitting hairs but I do think there is a material difference. As for the increase in all this, I blame the internet, of course.
 
I think it is important to differentiate between demand and access. I think that both have increased because of the growing rental market, but perhaps in the past the demand existed and simply went unfulfilled due to lack of a vibrant rental marketplace. Fast forward to today and the paradigm has shifted. At one point it time it was almost exclusively owners who had access, now literally anybody has access to DVC resorts. I know it seems like I'm splitting hairs but I do think there is a material difference. As for the increase in all this, I blame the internet, of course.
These are contributing factors, also.
 
IMO, renting has increased the SPEED at which the resorts fill up (at least the near park resorts). Before renting got so popular ( and easy), it wasn't as necessary to book so early in the window. Now an owner has to worry about all the renters out there who may want the same time or room as he does.

So, while it's true that someone will end up in the room, it may be a renter and not you. Your fellow owner wouldn't have chosen that room or time, but his renter did, so he booked it. You lose because the demand is coming earlier than it did in the past for what you want.

It's not the only factor, but it contributes.
But everyone has the opportunity to sign on at 11 months out and try to book. That is fair. We say renter but in reality it is an owner booking the room with his/her points. Points that will be used to book somewhere at some time. I don't see the problem. Let's look at walking. This practice is defended by many with the same logic. The system allows it and everyone can do it so no problem.

Just trying to encourage discussion and thought.

Full disclosutpre I am not a renter and I own 175 at SSR. I purchasedthere for the value and because I can get in at 11 month almost any time. Could that change, yes.
 
But everyone has the opportunity to sign on at 11 months out and try to book. That is fair. We say renter but in reality it is an owner booking the room with his/her points. Points that will be used to book somewhere at some time.
This is true to a point. In the past, before the rental market took off, owners would be booking at 11 months, or not, or using their points, or not. Sometimes they didn't know their plans so they would wait, etc. Enter the rental market and there are simply more people able to access the inventory and more of a rush to beat everyone else to the good rooms on the good dates. With that increased demand, like @CarolMN said, the speed at which people are booking has increased. We are seeing that all over the place, inside Disney and outside as well.
 


Let's look at walking. This practice is defended by many with the same logic. The system allows it and everyone can do it so no problem.

Walking is actually probably practiced by owners only on their own behalf and not for renters. Because you'll get the same $ for your points anyway and most renters ask for studios with unreasonably short lead time. There's no upside for an owner renting out their points to stalk or walk for a renter.
 
Walking is actually probably practiced by owners only on their own behalf and not for renters. Because you'll get the same $ for your points anyway and most renters ask for studios with unreasonably short lead time. There's no upside for an owner renting out their points to stalk or walk for a renter.


Sorry, maybe I was not clear. I was not comparing walking to renting. Just the way they can both be defended as "everyone in the system follows the same rules"

I think the most important thing I have learned on these boards is that DVC is dynamic and you have to continue to adjust to the changes.
 
Sorry, maybe I was not clear. I was not comparing walking to renting. Just the way they can both be defended as "everyone in the system follows the same rules"

I get it - I actually agree with your main point. I don't see how blaming renters has anything to do with anything. But walkers also get blamed for inability of some people to book what they want at 11 mo, or 7 mo, or somewhere in between, when I think really there isn't really a point to "blaming" anyone other than Disney in particular situations because they're the ones who have created the rules we all need to follow.
 


IMO, renting has increased the SPEED at which the resorts fill up (at least the near park resorts). Before renting got so popular ( and easy), it wasn't as necessary to book so early in the window. Now an owner has to worry about all the renters out there who may want the same time or room as he does.


So, while it's true that someone will end up in the room, it may be a renter and not you. Your fellow owner wouldn't have chosen that room or time, but his renter did, so he booked it. You lose because the demand is coming earlier than it did in the past for what you want.

It's not the only factor, but it contributes.
As another point of discussion, I’ll posit that it’s not renters, it’s not resale, it’s not walkers, but rather it’s the Information/Computer/Digital Age. All of which everyone here is a part.

Longtime owners who harken back to the days of being able to walk up to the counter and book a room, or decide one day that “I’ll call up and book at a resort next month.” Those days are long gone, not because of any particular group (of which, I personally have no way to gauge impact relative to the larger membership), but because of the slow march towards more information.

With real time availability readily accessible online, people putting together color-coded charts that highlight deficiencies in availability in the system, and helpful communities like this one sharing how best to secure that 2BR at BWV during X month, the ownership is learning how to navigate the system more efficiently and there has been a gradual democratization of information once exclusive to those who were really “DVC savvy.”

The result is that fewer and fewer owners are letting points go to waste. I’m confident a graph of breakage year over year would show a decline (this of course based in absolutely nothing but pure conjecture). Owners are learning how to book more smartly, walk, bank, borrow, and yes, rent and transfer points.

A whole population of owners come in primed with knowledge on the system, and by virtue of having been indoctrinated into Disney’s timeshare through places like these boards that proselytize “buy where you want to stay” and “book at 11 months,” we, and our interest in helping the broader community, are all part of “the problem” - we are helping to create a more educated ownership.
 
t's makes the difference on availability being eaten up at 7 months, and it makes a difference (IMO) on the studio availabilty.

And besides - I'm not talking about someone that has a contract and rents out the points every other year. I'm talking about people that own 1000 points and rent them ALL out every year to make money.
I agree. Even though the total number of points do not change whether an owner or a renter uses the points, the usage of the points is different.
My resale contracts were bought with a total of ~800 banked points. If my family had used those points, we would have taken up 2.5 weeks in a 2BR. But because I rented them out, those points took up 6-7 weeks in valuable VGF/Poly/BLT studios.

I agree with @KAT4DISNEY that there are situations when owners become fulltime renters by necessity. And setting hard limits on renting (more than the 20/year limit already in place) would cause more harm than good to the membership as a whole. What could work is a booking fee for individual bookings, that goes towards offsetting MFs for everybody. One 4-day booking in a room uses less front desk resources and 1/4 the housekeeping as four 1-day bookings. Why shouldn't people booking the single days pay a little more (to the tune of what housekeeping costs) than people snow-birding in FL for 6 weeks at a stretch?

I would have no problem with paying a booking fee that goes into admin costs to reduce MF; user pays is fair. I read a comment somebody posted (when the increased MF and point charts were announced last year), that they were planning to book single nights, multiple rooms, on the most desirable dates and rent out the bookings. That would annoy me much more than paying a booking fee which might slightly discourage these 1-2 night bookings.
 
I get it - I actually agree with your main point. I don't see how blaming renters has anything to do with anything. But walkers also get blamed for inability of some people to book what they want at 11 mo, or 7 mo, or somewhere in between, when I think really there isn't really a point to "blaming" anyone other than Disney in particular situations because they're the ones who have created the rules we all need to follow.


Exactly. Everyone looks for someone or something to blame when things don't go their way. It's just human nature. Its not the fault on any individual or group. It is just the way it is. Figure out how to work within the system and move on.

I just wanted to encourage some debate and thought and maybe a little reflection.
 
As another point of discussion, I’ll posit that it’s not renters, it’s not resale, it’s not walkers, but rather it’s the Information/Computer/Digital Age. All of which everyone here is a part.

Longtime owners who harken back to the days of being able to walk up to the counter and book a room, or decide one day that “I’ll call up and book at a resort next month.” Those days are long gone, not because of any particular group (of which, I personally have no way to gauge impact relative to the larger membership), but because of the slow march towards more information.

With real time availability readily accessible online, people putting together color-coded charts that highlight deficiencies in availability in the system, and helpful communities like this one sharing how best to secure that 2BR at BWV during X month, the ownership is learning how to navigate the system more efficiently and there has been a gradual democratization of information once exclusive to those who were really “DVC savvy.”

The result is that fewer and fewer owners are letting points go to waste. I’m confident a graph of breakage year over year would show a decline (this of course based in absolutely nothing but pure conjecture). Owners are learning how to book more smartly, walk, bank, borrow, and yes, rent and transfer points.

A whole population of owners come in primed with knowledge on the system, and by virtue of having been indoctrinated into Disney’s timeshare through places like these boards that proselytize “buy where you want to stay” and “book at 11 months,” we, and our interest in helping the broader community, are all part of “the problem” - we are helping to create a more educated ownership.

Right. That's EXACTLY what I meant when I said this...

As for the increase in all this, I blame the internet, of course.

:)
 
How does renting cause availability issues? Someone owns points, someone will use those points to book. How does it matter who sleeps in the room? The room will be booked either way. We all have an 11 month home esort advantage, then all of points ( well almost all) are equal at 7 months. The only way availability gets better is if owners let their points expire without booking them. I just can't see it any other way. This argument just sounds like sour grapes to me. Correct me info I am wrong.

Well. 15 years ago when there wasn’t a big rental market, I’d imagine a lot of points went wasted. Now that the market is operating more efficiently, less points are wasted—which leads to more issues at 7 months mark.

While people might want to blame SSR, rental companies making the market more efficient might be more to blame.
 
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No, no. I get the economic principle. What I’m saying is what you are looking at in terms of valuation is a very different product than what is ACTUALLY available to buy in at.

The saying, “If you’re not willing to buy today, you should sell.” Simply doesn’t work because what you buy today isn’t actually what you’re selling. The product is fundamentally different (way more than the “member benefits” you refer to). Assuming you bought pre-2019, an OKW-E you own today is worth much more after 2042 than an OKW-E you can buy anywhere (save for direct) today. Given this, the statement should actually be, “If you’re not willing to buy grandfathered points with the benefit of being completely whole past 2042 today, you should sell.”

It’s an important qualifier and changes the equation.
Given that it’s friday evening and I’ve had a couple drinks, I will wait til tomorrow to reply. ;-)
 
Well. 15 years ago when there wasn’t a big rental market, I’d imagine a lot of points went wasted.

In my opinion that is the biggest difference with a very active rental market (not many points being wasted). A higher percentage of points were not being used 15 years ago vs today thus causing less and less availability.
 
There is also a general uptick in travel. Other timeshare systems that don't have such visible rental markets have also seen reductions in apparent availability.
 

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