Cases rising or dropping by you?

[JimMIA]

We need to focus on 7 day moving averages. Weekends and holidays numbers are often not reported as day of but bundled on other days in many cities and counties. This week I have been eying as we opened a lot beginning of May but Thursday was a holiday and now weekend. I figure next week we see more. I wish hospitslization and ICU rates and %positive from testing were easier to find than absolute cases.

This^^^^^

Deaths lag well behind new cases, and the new cases increase as you increase testing. We're not likely to get reliable ICU rates, but many places provide hospitalization data and the positive/negative results from testing. To me, those two trend lines and an average of new cases over a period of time are much more helpful.

 

[Cannot_Wait_4Disney]

The disclaimer has been present and the 14 day window shaded since soon after the governor opened the state.

Which means the objection that it wasn't there was correct.

How is stating that both the Department of Healths chart and the AJCs chart both show a downward trend confirmation bias?

You neglected again that there is a difference in the size of the trends.
Further, you're all over the AJC even after the State of Georgia themselves admitted they were wrong and apologized for it.

Here is the corrected chart. Still looks like a significant downward trend.

Well then. If the corrected chart is still optimistic, that destroys your argument that the AJC didn't like it because it wasn't pessimistic. And if you don't understand that time series data go in chronological order, there's no real discussion to be had with you.

 

[kymom99]

Our cases are finally declining after being plateaued for a long time. However, graduations are happening and I’m afraid there is no turning back now. Even though they are social distancing at the actual activities, it’s the after that has me concerned. I’m afraid it’s going to be a self fulfilling prophecy as far as the second spike is concerned. And I’m also afraid it will be impossible to rein people in if that happens. I can only hope for a treatment by then.

 

[Cannot_Wait_4Disney]

Your confirmation bias is showing - you may want to rethink this?

If the state of Georgia admitting they were at fault and apologizing didn't prompt a rethink, what chance do we have?

 

[kdonnel]

Which means the objection that it wasn't there was correct.

You neglected again that there is a difference in the size of the trends.
Further, you're all over the AJC even after the State of Georgia themselves admitted they were wrong and apologized for it.

Well then. If the corrected chart is still optimistic, that destroys your argument that the AJC didn't like it because it wasn't pessimistic. And if you don't understand that time series data go in chronological order, there's no real discussion to be had with you.

I am still confused as to how looking at a chart and seeing that the line is going up or down is any sort of confirmation bias?


Looks like the 7 day rolling average is about to start trending up.


Looks like the 7 day rolling average is trending up.


How is stating which direction a chart is heading any sort of bias?

Still good news on the transmission rate since opening.



Still good news on the hospitalizations since opening

 

[HeatherC]

When did NC open back up? CNN is reporting they have had a surge and recording highest one day totals yet. Just curious how long it has been since it re opened?

Here in Massachusetts we are continuing to drop thankfully. Hoping it stays that way as we slowly reopen.

 

[Mackenzie Click-Mickelson]

When did NC open back up? CNN is reporting they have had a surge and recording highest one day totals yet. Just curious how long it has been since it re opened?

Here in Massachusetts we are continuing to drop thankfully. Hoping it stays that way as we slowly reopen.

These are the type of things that I was talking about on another thread.

People see cases rise and automatically go to when the state reopened or started reopening. This may or may not be what is related to it (I know you were just wondering).

2 days ago NC stated they expect to see rising cases as increased testing efforts ensue (though I'm sure that's not responsible for all of it) and here's a good article explaing in more detail regarding their numbers and in part where they are coming from: https://patch.com/north-carolina/charlotte/covid-19-testing-surge-confirms-788-new-cases-nc

North Carolina it appears has had a modified reopening plan. Here's an article about Phase 1 (which was a modified stay at home order): https://www.wxii12.com/article/nort...reopening-phase-one-plan-roy-cooper/32379832# Phase 2 just started yesterday and here's a good article about it (which lifts their stay at home order): https://www.wyff4.com/article/gov-c...h-carolina-phase-2-reopening-begins/32644405#

 

[HeatherC]

These are the type of things that I was talking about on another thread.

People see cases rise and automatically go to when the state reopened or started reopening. This may or may not be what is related to it (I know you were just wondering).

2 days ago NC stated they expect to see rising cases as increased testing efforts ensue (though I'm sure that's not responsible for all of it) and here's a good article explaing in more detail regarding their numbers and in part where they are coming from: https://patch.com/north-carolina/charlotte/covid-19-testing-surge-confirms-788-new-cases-nc

North Carolina it appears has had a modified reopening plan. Here's an article about Phase 1 (which was a modified stay at home order): https://www.wxii12.com/article/nort...reopening-phase-one-plan-roy-cooper/32379832# Phase 2 just started yesterday and here's a good article about it (which lifts their stay at home order): https://www.wyff4.com/article/gov-c...h-carolina-phase-2-reopening-begins/32644405#

Totally understand how cases can rise when testing increases. I should have mentioned that. I am curious because our state has also increased testing but cases are dropping.

 

[Mackenzie Click-Mickelson]

Totally understand how cases can rise when testing increases. I should have mentioned that. I am curious because our state has also increased testing but cases are dropping.

To me that would be spread isn't as high in your area compared to others but that's just my opinion. Because every place is doing things differently it becomes hard to compare not that it isn't interesting to look at other places though.

It also would depend on the focus of the testing. Based on the initial research it seemed a few weeks ago NC was targeting vunerable communities. It's possible they are continuing to do that. Based on looking at NC they were pretty strict with their reopenings.

In my county (which I should be clear I'm not in NC lol) at least the number of people testing is increasing (though still quite low IMO) but the percent positive is decreasing (county sits at 4.5% right now), along with randomized testing every Friday, along with separating out the cases by zip code and giving two sets of numbers (total cases of each zip code and then less the long-term care facility cases) it's easier to see the spread. However, spread can still happen as people move around more but may not be directly related opening up as what 'reopens' doesn't mean everyone will go there or engage in such activities.

I think some of the information on each place won't be known and some will have to be figured out later. What kinda muddies the waters is many places have backlog of tests or do huge batches (at least that's what's come to be known) so you have to ask yourself (general self) is this 'new spread' in high numbers or other things. I didn't do a big search on NC though to see if that was the case there for at least some of their increased numbers.

 

[jlmarr]

Orange County is trending up (i.e. not doing well), although I look more at hospitalizations, # ICU cases, and deaths, rather than cases. We had our largest daily count of deaths on Wednesday (10), and then topped that on Thursday (14). The county supervisors are gung ho to reopen though. I'm not anxious to go back to any indoor shopping mall, or even Disneyland, for that matter.

Still rising here in OC, California. I look at this chart of hospitalizations: coronavirus-in-oc

Last I heard, a couple of the county supervisors were pushing back on the wear-a-mask requirement imposed by the county health department, one of them referring to the folks with MD and MPH degrees as "so-called experts".

 

[Colleen27]

This^^^^^

Deaths lag well behind new cases, and the new cases increase as you increase testing. We're not likely to get reliable ICU rates, but many places provide hospitalization data and the positive/negative results from testing. To me, those two trend lines and an average of new cases over a period of time are much more helpful.

Along with the percentage of tests that are positive and the effective R0, which isn't being reported in all states but is being calculated by several research groups focused on a data-driven approach to the pandemic. Comparisons over time should be based on the metrics that are the least prone to distortion from varying testing and processing rates.

 

[disneychrista]

On the rise here but that is to be expect because we have increased testing. The most concerning things is we have gone from ZERO hospitalization to THREE in the past 2 weeks.

 

[Searc]

Not surprisingly, cases are on the rise in WI.

 

[Cannot_Wait_4Disney]

On the rise here but that is to be expect because we have increased testing. The most concerning things is we have gone from ZERO hospitalization to THREE in the past 2 weeks.

My state is saying the same thing. However here is the rub. They can't have it both ways. They used the lower numbers before to rationalize opening up. But if numbers are up only because of testing, that means the real numbers were always up. They only looked low due to a lack of testing and they should not have gone to phase two and thus we shouldn't be going to phase 3. And if those lower numbers were genuine, then they're genuinely up and should not consider phase 3. They're just rationalizing whatever they want to do. But fortunately I think we're going to be ok. No thanks to the state, but thanks to the bigger counties and tourist spots not opening up yet. And really it was the touristy spots that had the worst social distancing of all memorial day weekend.

 

[barkley]

the numbers are being (i.m.h.o.) manipulated where i live to justify reopening.

supposedly the criteria for moving up in reopening stages is based in large part on the number of cases. well............we've had double digit increases over the last week (which correlates with the adjacent/very close proximity state's reopening about 2 weeks ago). the news reports it's not being considered in our counts b/c the majority is all staff at one company so it's 'isolated' with 'no community contact'.

i've heard this for the past week and thought 'did these employees have zero contact with their family members, grocery stores, the outside world in general during the 12-14 day incubation period before whomever one single person at the plant came into contact with and spread it to the others?' i think not

now today we find out that a nut job the media has been covering for the past week b/c he's been arrested (but not detained for more than a couple hours) for 2 dui's and has been discovered to be active covid which has resulted in multiple law enforcement officers being put into quarantene as well as the prisoner who shared a cell with him and the 4 other idiots who were riding along in the drunk driving vehical . THE KICKER??????? this is an employee of the 'isolated' company.

so much for no community contact.

 

[okeydokey]

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/h...eported-in-most-states/ss-BB14Dt88?li=BBnb7Kz

 

[disneychrista]

Just found out a person who works in my building tested positive.

 

[HeatherC]

Dropping again in MA. We are opening very slowly and it seems to be working. The state has run about a half a million tests and is increasing testing capability each week. They seem to be really listening to the science and data behind all this and planning accordingly. Not everyone is happy, but I think the state (which has a Republican Governor in a Democratic state) is doing well overall. I wish we could see that with a lot of other states.

 

[bookwormde]

The number of active cases has dropped about 5% in the last week leaving us at the levels we had on about 5/14

This is mainly from the number of cases in one of our rural counties dropping dramatically (they were at 3.5x the per ca pita daily infection rate of our urban county

 

[wilbret]

I don't pay much attention to the rise in "cases," I'm more concerned about hospitalizations.
These have rapidly declined. I'm sure the media will need to focus on shark attacks now that people are hitting the beaches.