Cases rising or dropping by you?

The AJC newspaper does not believe the Georgia Department of Public Health is presenting the numbers in the most pessimistic way so they recalculate the numbers and provide their own chart. Despite being open for over 3 weeks, the trend is downward.
View attachment 495502

Same data as presented by the Georgia DOH.
View attachment 495503


The Rt number has been hovering around 1 since April 11th, again despite being open.
View attachment 495501

Curse that AJC for believing charts by date should be in date order.

Chart before Georgia got caught, had to apologize profusely far and wide, and changed it. They changed the dates to run in chronological order and kept the cunties in the same order each date instead of moving them around.
495685

Look at that decline. Time to open. Yup yip yep. . 26 April comes 10 days after 28 april. Sure thing. Did I mention I've also got a bridge for sale?

There is a difference between your first two graphs. The top one shows a decline in new cases between the first of the month and now. The bottom graph shows a huge drop off to almost nothing. That's because Georgia is behind in filling in what Independent sources have the next day. But at least now that two week period is darkened on Georgia's graph and they have a disclosure
"14-day window – Confirmed cases over the last 14 days may not be accounted for due to illnesses yet to be reported or test results may still be pending."
Prior to getting caught it wasn't darkened and there was no disclosure. AND WE WOULD HAVE GOTTEN AWAY WITH IT IF IT WEREN'T FOR THOSE MEDDLING KIDS AT THE AJC!!!!!!

Independent sources have the info the day after. And it takes Georgia two weeks? Are they still using these down there or something?
495690


Curse the AJC for wanting info genuinely up to date or disclosure that it is not up to date when people are basing such important decisions off of said info.

Oh and that little error of being 400 deaths behind a while back. ..... Come on AJC, it's only a 40% error on Georgia's part. Don't you know preparing data takes time!!!!!
495691


The AJC wasn't the only ones that caught Them. Several others did as well. And Georgia apologized.


Back to the thread title. Active cases are rising in my county. New cases are also rising slowly. Deaths are steady, but there aren't all that many. We've done better than all of the counties around us.

There is an article on this on USATODAY’s app. I would not believe one word of what any of the officials in Florida are saying about the numbers.
Uh oh Georgia. Here comes Florida to take back the Iron throne of can't count.
 
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Curse that AJC for believing charts by date should be in date order.

Chart before Georgia got caught, had to apologize profusely far and wide, and changed it. They changed the dates to run in chronological order and kept the cunties in the same order each date instead of moving them around.
View attachment 495685

Look at that decline. Time to open. Yup yip yep. . 26 April comes 10 days after 28 april. Sure thing. Did I mention I've also got a bridge for sale?

There is a difference between your first two graphs. The top one shows a decline in new cases between the first of the month and now. The bottom graph shows a huge drop off to almost nothing. That's because Georgia is behind in filling in what Independent sources have the next day. But at least now that two week period is darkened on Georgia's graph and they have a disclosure
"14-day window – Confirmed cases over the last 14 days may not be accounted for due to illnesses yet to be reported or test results may still be pending."
Prior to getting caught it wasn't darkened and there was no disclosure. AND WE WOULD HAVE GOTTEN AWAY WITH IT IF IT WEREN'T FOR THOSE MEDDLING KIDS AT THE AJC!!!!!!

Independent sources have the info the day after. And it takes Georgia two weeks? Are they still using these down there or something?
View attachment 495690


Curse the AJC for wanting info genuinely up to date or disclosure that it is not when people are basing such important decisions off of said info.

Oh and that little error of being 400 deaths behind a while back. ..... Come on AJC, it's only a 40% error on Georgia's part. Don't you know preparing data takes time!!!!!
View attachment 495691


The AJC wasn't the only ones that caught Them. Several others did as well. And Georgia apologized.


Back to the thread title. Active cases are rising in my county. New cases are also rising. Deaths are steady.
Just awful.
How lacking in moral decency does one need to be to take real data and turn it into deliberately misleading garbage?
The good news- the truth has come out.
 
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I don't pay attention to my state numbers as my state is so large. My county of over 300,000 has had 4 new cases, only 2 hospitalized, and none in ICU. We are opening up. Restaurants started having sit down customers this past weekend. We will see if it jumps in the next couple of weeks.
 
There is a difference between your first two graphs. The top one shows a decline in new cases between the first of the month and now. The bottom graph shows a huge drop off to almost nothing. That's because Georgia is behind in filling in what Independent sources have the next day. But at least now that two week period is darkened on Georgia's graph and they have a disclosure
"14-day window – Confirmed cases over the last 14 days may not be accounted for due to illnesses yet to be reported or test results may still be pending."
Prior to getting caught it wasn't darkened and there was no disclosure. AND WE WOULD HAVE GOTTEN AWAY WITH IT IF IT WEREN'T FOR THOSE MEDDLING KIDS AT THE AJC!!!!!!
The disclaimer has been present and the 14 day window shaded since soon after the governor opened the state. The Georgia Department of Health has not been hiding the fact that reporting is delayed due to testing. It is not a recent addition and neither is the shading of the 14 day window.

The AJC follows a different methodology, that is why their chart looks completely different.

The DPH
As new reports come in, DPH allocates them to earlier dates, based on when symptoms developed; tests were taken or reported to the state; or deaths occurred.

The AJC on the other hand does no back dating.
This is how the AJC determines our daily count of new, confirmed cases: [Today's cumulative DPH case count] - [Yesterday's cumulative DPH case count] = Today's AJC daily count of new cases. We do the same for deaths.


In my opinion the DPH method ultimately provides a clearer picture into the past since it will attribute cases to the estimated day they occurred rather then the day a positive test is returned. The DOH charts indicate a much higher rolling average peak because the cases are ultimately recorded near the date of infection as opposed to the day a test result is returned.

DOH chart shows a much higher peak due to back dating.
Screen Shot 2020-05-19 at 8.18.10 PM.png


AJC chart not back dating on the other hand flattens the peak.
Screen Shot 2020-05-19 at 8.18.23 PM.png

In either case the trend is down, despite being open over 3 weeks.

As for how an independent source has test results back before the results have been returned, they must use some sort of magic!

Here is the corrected chart. Still looks like a significant downward trend.
Screen Shot 2020-05-19 at 8.29.00 PM.png

So far the numbers are looking good.
 
I'm following our county's numbers very closely. They give a graph with daily tests and another with daily cases, but the two don't relate to each other. If someone took a test on May 10th and got a positive result on May 15th they would show up on the test chart on May 10th and the case chart on May 15th. AND they wouldn't show up on the testing chart until May 15th (under May 10th). So our testing curve always looks like it fell off since so many results are pending. Our number of cases has been increasing, but our testing has increased greatly. Our rate of positive tests has decreased and is only around 5.5% now.
 


More tests and YES more positive cases. So many "asymptomatic".
PROOF that persons were walking around without realizing they are potentially spreading the virus. and still are
Ask yourself this :" were they also the persons not wearing a mask in the store" and still are
 
Keep Manitoba flat!

We have been dropping for a while, and had a stretch of 5 days with no new cases before we got one new one a day or two ago. As @CdnCarrie said, we’re in phase one of reopening and phase two will happen in the next week or two.

We are now allowed to have groups of 25 indoors and 50 outdoors..following the 2 metre guideline, of course.
 
It's hard to tell from our raw numbers now because we have increased our testing so much. A month ago, we were testing 4,000-5,000 people per day. Last week we tested almost 17,000 per day, so naturally the number of cases has increased.

In our county, we just started limited re-openings on Monday. We'll see what happens, but I suspect we will not see a spike in cases.
 
We continue to increase daily in both confirmed cases and deaths.

From yesterdays news report: "Health officials have confirmed 4,034 coronavirus cases and 91 deaths across Shelby County, an increase of 29 cases and three deaths in one day."
 
Keep Manitoba flat!

We have been dropping for a while, and had a stretch of 5 days with no new cases before we got one new one a day or two ago. As @CdnCarrie said, we’re in phase one of reopening and phase two will happen in the next week or two.

We are now allowed to have groups of 25 indoors and 50 outdoors..following the 2 metre guideline, of course.

Do you mind sharing the reopening phases and what they entail? It sounds like you have very cases, so your reopening plans make sense, but it’s so strange to me that your phase one includes things we won’t get back until phase 3 or 4 (with 4 being the lifting of the SIP).
 
Cases in Wisconsin are going up but at first I thought it was just because of increased testing. But now hospitalizations are rising again too, so I’m really concerned. With everything basically wide open here, I’m worried about how bad it’s going to get. It’s too soon for these numbers to come from reopening so it’s probably just the beginning. :guilty:
 
Do you mind sharing the reopening phases and what they entail? It sounds like you have very cases, so your reopening plans make sense, but it’s so strange to me that your phase one includes things we won’t get back until phase 3 or 4 (with 4 being the lifting of the SIP).

I don’t remember everything but I know hair salons were allowed to open, non essential businesses, golf courses, outdoor patios, things like that. They all had very strict requirements to be allowed to be open and they are checked regularly and fined if they are not following the guidelines.

I believe our phase two will include indoor gatherings of 25 and outdoor gatherings of 50, but nothing is official yet.
 
Dropping. I believe we had 0 new cases the day we opened up. But now that we are open I expect our numbers will go up.
 

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