A little over ten years ago, there was seldom any walking because there was no need to do so. BWV standard view studios (and with studios I include the 2BRs of a lock-off which disappear if the studio is reserved) and sometimes the BWV GVs had an 11-month reservation issue during some days in the first two weeks of Dec and during Christmas week, mainly around NYE. It was rare for BWV boardwalk view studios to have an issue. AKV club level studios (only 5) and OKW GVs in the Hospitality House booking category (only 2) had the issue more often but with so few rooms in the booking category, the problem could not be prevented and there is no cure for those types of rooms regardless of what anyone suggests should be done. AKV value had no 11-month issue at the time.
Beginning a little over ten years ago, the 11-month issue started to get worse and continued to get worse and worse every year thereafter. AKV club level and value studios now have the issue almost year round, BWV standard studios throughout the fall season and about half the rest of the year, BWV boardwalk studios during much of the fall, BLT standard studios often have the issue in fall and sometimes during the rest of the year, VGF studios have the issue some times in the fall but seldom during the rest of the year. The CCV studios have developed the issue for the fall and significant parts of the rest of the year. Riviera Tower and standard studios have the issue at times in the fall and once in a while at other times.
So what is the cause and what is the solution. Many apparently believe that cause is walkers and the solution is kill the walkers by creating reservation restrictions that would cause harm to many members who need to make modifications, and would favor those with more points than others in being able to get a reservation. It is even suggested that new purchasers should be told that walking may prevent them from getting a studio reservation at 11-months out if DVC does nothing to stop walking.
DVD is not going to tell new purchasers that walking is a problem that is causing members to be unable to book studios at 11-months out. Walkers exist as a response to an 11-month problem that was mainly created by another and unless that other ceases what it has been doing for ten years, the problem will not be solved, and will continue to get worse even if, as some apparently desire, you kill all the walkers.
The "other" I am speaking of is DVD. A little over ten years ago, during the Great Recession, it took its first step that began the oversell, albeit legally, of studios. It lowered the minimum for new purchasers from 160 points to 100 points and at times 75 and 50, minimums that still get used today. Moreover, it began its process of limiting the rights and privileges of resale purchasers, something it would use to entice more to buy from it than resale. Then despite the Great Recession, and beginning in Dec 2010 when BLT was essentially sold out, it began a process of raising purchase prices well beyond anything related to inflation. Over a little more than 2 years, the price of BLT increased from $120 a point to $165; AKV, still not sold out, was raised from $112 to $145 during the same period. Inflation was practically nonexistent and wages were stagnant, a situation that continued to almost the end of the decade.
But in May 2013, the reason for such significant raises in price in only two years became apparent. DVD began selling VGF at $145 a point for a short period to members and then $150 a point when sales began for new purchasers. That $165 a point high price for a long sold-out BLT was used to make purchasers think they were getting a bargain with VGF because they did not know prices had been increased 40% for a sold-out resort in a little over two years. Moreover, the price by itself was not an accurate comparison. VGF came with much higher nightly point costs than BLT, effectively making it more expensive than even the $165 a point then being charged for BLT.
The plan worked and VGF sales were very good except for one new factor. The stagnant economy, the low point purchase requirements, the high price per point, and high points needed per night, resulted in a larger percentage than normal of purchasers who bought only enough points to be able to get studios. It was not long before VGF developed an 11-month issue during times in the fall season for studios.
When Poly was introduced, prices increased again, and point per night requirements remained very high, although an 11-month issue was mostly avoided because of the huge number of studios. Nevertheless, DVD still effectively oversold studios by adding a lot of high-point bungalows (for which to purchase enough points for a week cost "only" about $220,000) and thus was able to sell a lot more points to those who could purchase enough points only to get studios. Prices for CCV were also high, but it did not have hundreds of studios like Poly, but did have a large number of high-point cabins, and for a long time a minimum point purchase of 75 points, allowing DVD to again oversell points to those who could buy only enough points for less costly rooms, particularly studios. The result, now that CCV is mostly sold out, is that its studios have an 11-month issue during much of the fall period and during many times the rest of the year.
Then came Riviera, with a point structure way higher than BWV, a resort with comparable location and number of rooms. But it had a minimum number of lower cost Tower studios and limited number of standard studios at points just low enough to entice many to buy though they could not purchase enough points for larger rooms. It now has an 11-month issue for Tower studios and at least standard studios during parts of the fall and once in a while during other times of year.
Not satisfied with overselling studios in the newer resorts, DVD continued to add restrictions to resale purchasers, taking away all rights to any discounts in 2015 and finally taking away even the ability to reserve a new resort despite that the applicable POS documents for the non-Riviera resorts provided that both new and resale purchasers of the older resorts had the right to reserve any DVC Resort, including those added in the future. Meanwhile, it also continuously raised the price of the older resorts during that 2010 to 2020 period to the point that prices on near park resorts like BWV, BLT, and BCV have been raised in excess of 100%. With such high prices, DVD needed the lower point minimums to keep selling more points to new purchasers, which points were re-acquired by DVD through foreclosures or exercising the right of first refusal, and it also added another selling point to entice new purchasers to buy the points needed to get studios at those resorts -- it turned BWV, BCV and BRV studios into rooms that allowed and slept 5 rather than 4.
Net effect of the DVD actions over the last ten years is that a number of studios now have an 11-month issue. And it is apparent that nothing is being done to change DVD's sales practices, e.g., though it may not be built now because of Covid, the plan to add Reflections included that it too would have a bunch of expensive cabins, thus allowing it a lot of extra points to sell in the low point minimum ranges to those purchasing enough points to get studios.
DVD and DVC actually came up with an anti-member solution to fix the oversell-of-studios problem. In late 2018, it issued new
point charts for 2020 that essentially raised the points needed year-round to reserve studios and 1BRs (rooms that usually have the lowest demand and thus need no raising of points). It did back off that plan as a result of member complaints, but continued to assert it had the right to do it. It then did a point shift it could legally do -- moving points for each type room from the high demand fall season to other lower-demand times of year.
But one needs to understand that those kinds of moves are only temporary fixes. A permanent fix cannot occur if DVD continues its same sales practices of continuously raising prices well beyond anything resembling inflation, continuously increasing the points needed per night for new resorts, adding ridiculously expensive specialty rooms that cost a fortune but allow more points to be sold, and maintaining too low minimum-point-requirements, which combined actions increase the percentage of buyers who purchase only enough points to get studios, and then DVD does not alleviate the problem by building a lot more studios than other rooms.
So instead of condemning walkers, one needs to recognize that the "modern DVC" and its sales practices is what needs to change.
One should also note that members continuously demanding that DVC do something to supposedly correct a problem will usually result in it doing something that is least costly to it that no one likes. For example, rather than doing some costly program changes and trying to keep track of whether members are walking, DVC, if it wanted to end walking would most likely do something much simpler that no members could assert was improper. All DVC would need to do is return to the reservation rule it had before June 2008 when the rule was that you could reserve 11 (for home resort) or 7 (for other resorts) months out from your date of departure from the DVC Resort.
That rule made it impossible for anyone to "walk" a reservation by getting an arrival date that preceded the member's actual desired arrival date. However, the later your departure date, the greater the chance someone could take some of the dates needed before you could reserve them. As a result, some members actually did for some rooms (mainly hard-to-get GVs during those December times) do a different form of walking but one that did not involve booking any date that the member did not really want. Members would book a reservation day by day, first reserving the desired arrival date Then, the next day, the member would reserve the second day wanted, and continuing to do that daily until all desired days were reserved and then have MS merge the reservations into one. That "walking" method had one obvious disadvantage. The competition was exactly the same for each attempted reservation day, e.g., when trying to get the second day any other member could reserve the same room for the day by getting his reservation in first in the morning. That made little difference back before June 2008 because there was seldom any real problem reserving any room even at 11 months from date of departure. But to end the modern form of walking, DVC could easily just revert to that old system. Since there is more competition for a number of studios these days, few would likely be happy with the system when seeking harder-to-get studios, i.e., there is a decent chance that no one would ever get the total reservation time desired for a hard-to-get studio like AKV value or BWV standard during the high demand fall season.
But if members complain long and loud enough, don't be surprised if you see that reservation system resurrected.
