2042 and the pool of resale owners

[MickyLynn]

So, lets say Disney decides to let the 2042 resorts lapse. If your direct points are there, and you bought others resale, you are limited to 7 resorts. Or 1, if you bought Riviera. Is this going to make it much more difficult to book at those 7, because the direct resort points work everywhere but the resale points don't?
Does the point pool just work it out? I feel like there's an imbalance but I can't put my finger on it.

 

[Disney Dad ADL]

I think it's a tough question, but I think ultimately will happen is that all resorts will become more difficult to book at 7 months in general, even the resorts that are not the "legacy 7" left over.

Remember that the supply of rooms available at 7 months depends on owners leaving their home resort and booking at a different resort. As DVC restricts some owners from booking outside their home resort, it means that there is less movement, which causes fewer rooms to be available, which means that it's harder for other owners to move, which makes their home resort harder to book, and so on.

The resale owners of the legacy 7 will still be limited to book within the legacy 7, so the net effect is that there is no additional supply among the legacy 7 opened up for Riv direct owners for example. The resale owners may not be booking at their home resort, but they are still taking up a spot somewhere among the legacy 7.

Those are my initial thoughts anyway.

 

[jarestel]

By 2042 DVC will probably have built another 5 to 7 new resorts so for the bulk of the DVC population, who will obviously be direct sale members, things will continue on pretty much as normal. The restricted resale members will probably find more competition at their home resorts for the more desirable time frames - everyone won't be able to go during F&W - and will need to be more flexible when choosing their dates.

7 month reservations at the legacy resorts might become more difficult for everyone as resale restrictions limit those who purchased resale to only their home resort or to the remaining legacy resorts. But 2042 is still a long way off and who knows what may happen between now and then.

 

[katandmouse]

I was trying to figure out this very thing a couple months ago and I came to the same conclusion - yes, by 2042 the legacy resorts will be more difficult to book at 7 months for everyone, and probably Riviera by then too, maybe Reflections. As the number of restricted resales increases, it will always be more competitive to book the older resorts at 7 months, and relatively easier for eligible members to book the new resorts. This assumes no change to the resale restrictions. I hope DVC changes it by then, at least offers a charge to resales or something to allow everyone trading in and out.

This is why I dislike the resale restriction so much (well, besides changing the contracts). As it is, it would have a long-term negative effect for everyone, so it’s not just a harmless policy to deter resales.

(Here’s my post where I was thinking it out: https://www.disboards.com/threads/analysis-of-dvc-sales-resales-and-restrictions.3752766/ )

 

[jerseyduke]

I assume you mean after OKW, BWV, BCV, BRV, (and hilton head and VB) all come off line in 2042?

I think what will pose the issue is SSR. Not to knock it or anything like that - I get why people like it, it is a nice resort - but a fair number of ppl buy SSR points because they are the best value, and they make great '7 month points'. And the resort is a behemoth in terms of total points it has - so there will be a higher percentage of 7 month points in the system. Guess it depends on what is in the works for the future.

As @katandmouse said, that is one issue with the new resale restriction. Buy resale at Riviera? Well now you can not trade out of Riviera - so one less person can trade in. In theory, if every riviera contract were to get resold, it would be (virtually) impossible for any non-owner to stay there ever - that resort would not really be a part of the system. Of course, that is not realistic, but it illustrates the point.

 

[MickyLynn]

... the number of restricted resales increases...

I don't know why but it hadn't even occurred to me that this is a growing pool of points.

 

[AdamsMum]

I assume you mean after OKW, BWV, BCV, BRV, (and hilton head and VB) all come off line in 2042?

Well they can't take OKW offline, they did sell some extensions, and anyone who buys direct at OKW now is getting the 2057 points. Either that has made a mess for them, or it relieves the pressure on the other post 2042 resorts??? It's all getting too complicated for me.

 

[Deb & Bill]

It would be no different than the early days when there were only four resorts, OKW, BWV, VB and HHI.

 

[ILoveMyDVC]

It would be no different than the early days when there were only four resorts, OKW, BWV, VB and HHI.

What are the options for those of us who bought into the original DVC when there was only one the original "Vacation Club" a.k.a. OKW?

 

[CarolMN]

What are the options for those of us who bought into the original DVC when there was only one the original "Vacation Club" a.k.a. OKW?

Assuming you bought direct (not much of a resale market when OKW was the only resort), when the 7 month window opens, your points are good at any DVC resort., including the Riviera. This is true until/unless Disney elects to change something again. To be honest, original OKW owners have a LOT more lodging options now than they ever did when OKW was new.

 

[ILoveMyDVC]

Assuming you bought direct (not much of a resale market when OKW was the only resort), when the 7 month window opens, your points are good at any DVC resort., including the Riviera. This is true until/unless Disney elects to change something again. To be honest, original OKW owners have a LOT more lodging options now than they ever did when OKW was new.

Yes, we bought direct. It was all so magical back then. I am wondering how they will handle to mass 2042 expirations. If there will be a chance to extend and what the cost will be.

 

[MickyLynn]

I think part of the problem with the OKW extension was that it was too early. A six month option in May 2041, now slightly more for resale owners giving full membership privileges for the remaining 15 years, probably would have served them better.

 

[Doberge]

Immediately after 2042 it'll be a double edged sword. There will be fewer legacy resorts to trade into but also fewer people competing for those resorts.

If they resell the 2042 resorts in DVC then there will be a squeeze on the remaining legacy resorts as, say, BC 2.0, BWV 2.0, etc come back online.

It might also be increasingly difficult to book 2042 resorts in mid and late 2030s when Poly, VGF, CC, and orher longer legacy resort owners are trying to book the expiring legacy resorts while they can still switch into them.

 

[crvetter]

Immediately after 2042 it'll be a double edged sword. There will be fewer legacy resorts to trade into but also fewer people competing for those resorts.

If they resell the 2042 resorts in DVC then there will be a squeeze on the remaining legacy resorts as, say, BC 2.0, BWV 2.0, etc come back online.

It might also be increasingly difficult to book 2042 resorts in mid and late 2030s when Poly, VGF, CC, and orher longer legacy resort owners are trying to book the expiring legacy resorts while they can still switch into them.

But the issue is BWV and BCV is leaving so those owners are less likely to move resorts at 7 months. The problem I see is that in 2042 desirable resorts leave while less desirable resorts stay (SSR, OKW, etc) so there actually will end up being more competition if I had to guess.

 

[zavandor]

But the issue is BWV and BCV is leaving so those owners are less likely to move resorts at 7 months. The problem I see is that in 2042 desirable resorts leave while less desirable resorts stay (SSR, OKW, etc) so there actually will end up being more competition if I had to guess.

Two less desirable resort leave too: VB and HHI. But I don't know the percentage of offsite owners who use their points to book WDW at 7 months.
BCV is already often unavailable at 7 months, so its impact leaving will be limited.
BWV garden is the only category often available at 7 months outside fall frenzy. Maybe Riviera preferred will be able to balance that, but it's difficult to predict as the resale restrictions create all sort of scenarios.

 

[crvetter]

Two less desirable resort leave too: VB and HHI. But I don't know the percentage of offsite owners who use their points to book WDW at 7 months.
BCV is already often unavailable at 7 months, so its impact leaving will be limited.
BWV garden is the only category often available at 7 months outside fall frenzy. Maybe Riviera preferred will be able to balance that, but it's difficult to predict as the resale restrictions create all sort of scenarios.

True though their pool of owners is small compared to SSR for instance. I believe the resale owners at SSR are already more than those that own at HHI and VB combined. I just see 2042 not helping switching at 2042 but only hurting because you are removing far more "desirable" points than you are "undesirable" points. Thus there will still be a large imbalance that won't be corrected until some of the larger resorts go offline. My point is that the resorts that people will want to switch into will be concentrating at a much faster rate than the owners of resorts that want to switch to those resorts will be leaving.

 

[bookwormde]

While there may be strong incentives for Disney to take resorts off line for a complete restart including at the reset not having to follow the FL statutory requirement to operate in the best interest of the members (which Disney plays fast and loose with already), the resale market distortions as the remaining years for the 2042 resorts fall below 15 will likely force DVC to sell extended contacts long before 2042.
BCV is already up to $5.60/year amortized cost resale and $10.00 direct and as compared to an average of $ 3.00/year for the newer resorts resale and an average of $4.00/year direct.
With maintenance fees the on site 2042s are already at the top of what makes any sense as far as direct purchase. If you go to 12 year left (2030) then the 2042 direct price would be forced down to no more than $100/pt with VWL likely falling to $60-80.
Disney will want to avoid having on site resale selling a less than $50 and direct selling at $60-100 when they will have new inventory that they will likely be trying to sell for $300-400/pt.
The only practical solution if for Disney to start selling extended BCV, BWV and VWL contracts to hold the price up. They will likely be able to capture 75+% of what they would make waiting for full expiration while keeping the market stable.
In the end that along with the statutory requirements will keep Disney from reducing the booking options below what existed before Riviera.

 

[Lumpy1106]

THEORETICALLY, as the resorts go off-line, so will the demand because the people owning contracts at those resorts will also be done. The sticky one is of course OKW. Speculation here; I think Disney will turn that into a partial cash only resort until 2057, leaving just enough units "declared" for DVC use to account for the extended contracts.

Maybe Skier Pete has some better insight here, but I think a far bigger effect you will see (or maybe are already seeing) is that, as people get older, their kids go off to lives of their own and now those older couples no longer need a 1 or 2 br unit. That will put an even bigger demand on the limited studio inventory.

 

[Dean Marino]

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