Disney at the Oscars: 2019!

Twas the night before Oscar noms! Tomorrow AM we will find out how this crazy race is truly shaking out.
But first, the important Producers Guild (PGA) announced their annual winners:

Feature Film: Green Book
Animated Feature: Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
Documentary Feature: Won't You be my Neighbor?

This is an enormous win for Green Book. The PGA uses a preferential ballot just like the Academy. It has been a tough week for the film, with several controversies befalling it right as Oscar voting took place. For now those controversies don't seem to be swaying voters. The question is, will the backlash grow? Hard to say right now, but as it stands this feel-good pic just jumped to the leader of the pack in this year without a frontrunner.

I could see Green Book with a similar trajectory as Moonlight. It won the Globe, then went on to win Oscars for Best Picture, Original Screenplay, and Supporting Actor (Mahershala Ali). Curiously, Green Book also features Ali and I can see it racking up those very same three wins.

Should its strength be doubted? After all, it isn't nominated for SAG's Best Ensemble award. Only two films in history have been able to overcome a snub there and go on to win Best Picture (Braveheart and The Shape of Water). I have a hunch that after the SAG-AFTRA merger a few years ago, this might become a breakable stat (AFTRA members, now part of the same union, get to vote too. And AFTRA members include television and radio personalities, including those who are not performers but hosts etc. Their tastes often differ from those directly in the film industry).

So if Green Book can't win SAG, what does? A Star is Born really needed the PGA win to stay afloat. I think the glow has finally faded from it. Black Panther would make sense with this group. But I can see BlacKkKlansman taking it. Couple that ensemble win with a strong possibility for Spike Lee to finally win an Oscar for Adapted Screenplay, and the race becomes Green Book vs. BlacKkKlansman. Of course, Roma is still lurking and will most likely claim director and cinematography. We shall see!

Here's my final Best Picture rankings, as well as predictions for major categories:

Best Picture
1. Green Book
2. Roma
3. BlacKkKlansman
4. A Star is Born
5. Black Panther
6. The Favourite
7. Vice
8. Bohemian Rhapsody (I have a hunch it will only be 8 nominees, and I'd bet on these first 8)
9. If Beale Street Could Talk
10. Mary Poppins Returns
---
11. First Man
12. A Quiet Place
13. Eighth Grade
14. Crazy Rich Asians
15. Can You Ever Forgive Me?
16. Leave No Trace
17. Cold War
18. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
19. Widows
20. The Wife

Director
1. Alfonso Cuaron, Roma
2. Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman
3. Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born
4. Peter Farrelly, Green Book
5. Adam McKay, Vice (very vulnerable, but I cant decide who takes his place)
---
6. Pawel Pawlikowski, Cold War
7. Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite
8. Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk
9. Ryan Coogler, Black Panther
10. Debra Granik, Leave No Trace

Lead Actor
1. Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody
2. Christian Bale, Vice
3. Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born
4. Viggo Mortensen, Green Book
5. John Benjamin Washington, BlacKkKlansman
---
6. Ethan Hawke, First Reformed
7. Willam DaFoe, Eternity's Gate
8. Steve Coogan, Stan and Ollie
9. Ben Foster, Leave No Trace

Lead Actress
1. Glenn Close, The Wife
2. Olivia Colman, The Favourite
3. Lady Gaga, A Star is Born
4. Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
5. Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns
---
6. Viola Davis, Widows
7. Yalitza Aparicio, Roma
8. Toni Collette, Hereditary
9. Nicole Kidman, Destroyer
10. Elsie Fisher, Eighth Grade

Supporting Actor
1. Mahershala Ali, Green Book
2. Richard E Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
3. Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman
4. Timothee Chalamet, Beautiful Boy
5. Sam Elliott, A Star is Born
---
6. Sam Rockwell, Vice
7. Michael B. Jordan, Black Panther
8. Steve Carrell, Vice

Supporting Actress (the most wide-open acting category, I could see half the frontrunners being snubbed)
1. Amy Adams, Vice
2. Rachel Weisz, The Favourite
3. Emma Stone, The Favourite
4. Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk
5. Margot Robbie, Mary Queen of Scots
---
7. Emily Blunt, A Quiet Place
8. Claire Foy, First Man
9. Thomasin McKenzie, Leave No Trace
10. Linda Cardellini, Green Book
11. Marina de Tavria, Roma
12. Michelle Yeoh, Crazy Rich Asians

Original Screenplay
1. Green Book
2. Roma
3. The Favourite
4. Vice
5. Eighth Grade
---
6. First Reformed
7. A Quiet Place
8. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs

Adapted Screenplay
1. BlacKkKlansman
2. If Beale Street Could Talk
3. Can You Ever Forgive Me?
4. A Star is Born
5. Leave No Trace
---
6. Black Panther
7. The Death of Stalin
8. First Man
9. Crazy Rich Asians

Animated Feature
1. Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
2. Incredibles 2
3. Isle of Dogs
4. Ralph Breaks the Internet
5. Mirai
---
6. Early Man
7. The Grinch
8. Smallfoot
9. Ruben Brandt, Collector
10. Tito and the Birds

We shall see how smart of foolish I am in the morning!
 
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Ok Everyone, The Oscar nominations are here!!

Initial takeaways:
*Best Picture seems to be a battle of Roma vs. BlacKkKlansman vs. Green Book
-Roma came out strong with 10 nominations including 2 surprising acting noms, but shockingly missed Film Editing
-Green Book performed well but Peter Farrelly was snubbed for Best Director (no film since Driving Miss Daisy has won Picture without a corresponding Director nomination)
-BlacKkKlansman performed very well (though Washington missed lead actor), including a much needed inclusion in Film Editing
*What on earth does Emily Blunt have to do to get an Oscar nomination? Despite a stellar year, she was snubbed for both Mary Poppins Returns and A Quiet Place (she was nominated for both at SAG).
*The 8 films I predicted for Best Picture were indeed the 8 that made it. Which means the Mary Poppins Returns missed the cut (along with other lower ranked but beloved contenders Beale Street and First Man). It did still get into Score, Song, Production Design, and Costume Design
*Black Panther is now the first Marvel film, and first superhero film, to make the cut for Best Picture. This despite being snubbed in major categories (directing, acting, screenplay, cinematography, editing). Without those I don't think it can win Picture, but its nomination is a major boon for Marvel/Disney.
-the movie was also snubbed in Makeup/Hairstyling and Visual Effects, so it will do its best to win the sound categories, costume design, production design.
*Surprises in Visual Effects!
-Black Panther was snubbed, but my hunch that Solo would get in was correct! Christopher Robin also managed to overcome the lackluster presentation to get a surprise nomination. I'm pleased that one made it, because its very impressive work. Can Infinity War become the first Marvel film to win this category?

Disney's nominations

Black Panther
Best Picture
Costume Design
Production Design
Sound Editing
Sound Mixing
Original Score
Original Song ('All the Stars')

Mary Poppins Returns
Costume Design
Production Design
Original Score
Original Song ('The Place Where Lost Things Go')

Bao
Animated Short

Incredibles 2
Animated Feature

Ralph Breaks the Internet
Animated Feature

Avengers: Infinity War
Visual Effects

Christopher Robin
Visual Effects

Solo: A Star Wars Story
Visual Effects


A full list of Oscar nominations in every category can be found here:
http://www.awardsdaily.com/2019/01/22/oscar-nominations-for-the-91st-annual-academy-awards/

In order to keep this post from being overly long, I am just listing the major categories below
Best Picture
“Black Panther”
“BlacKkKlansman”
“Bohemian Rhapsody”
“The Favourite”
“Green Book”
“Roma”
“A Star Is Born”
“Vice”

Lead Actor
Christian Bale, “Vice”
Bradley Cooper, “A Star Is Born”
Willem Dafoe, “At Eternity’s Gate”
Rami Malek, “Bohemian Rhapsody”
Viggo Mortensen, “Green Book”

Lead Actress
Yalitza Aparicio, “Roma”
Glenn Close, “The Wife”
Olivia Colman, “The Favourite”
Lady Gaga, “A Star Is Born”
Melissa McCarthy, “Can You Ever Forgive Me?”

Supporting Actor
Mahershala Ali, “Green Book”
Adam Driver, “BlacKkKlansman”
Sam Elliott, “A Star Is Born”
Richard E. Grant, “Can You Ever Forgive Me?”
Sam Rockwell, “Vice”

Supporting Actress
Amy Adams, “Vice”
Marina de Tavira, “Roma”
Regina King, “If Beale Street Could Talk”
Emma Stone, “The Favourite”
Rachel Weisz, “The Favourite”

Director
Spike Lee, “BlacKkKlansman”
Pawel Pawlikowski, “Cold War”
Yorgos Lanthimos, “The Favourite”
Alfonso Cuarón, “Roma”
Adam McKay, “Vice”

Animated Feature
“Incredibles 2”
“Isle of Dogs”
“Mirai”
“Ralph Breaks the Internet”
“Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse”

Adapted Screenplay
“The Ballad of Buster Scruggs,” Joel Coen , Ethan Coen
“BlacKkKlansman,” Charlie Wachtel, David Rabinowitz, Kevin Willmott, Spike Lee
“Can You Ever Forgive Me?,” Nicole Holofcener and Jeff Whitty
“If Beale Street Could Talk,” Barry Jenkins
“A Star Is Born,” Eric Roth, Bradley Cooper, Will Fetters

Original Screenplay
“The Favourite,” Deborah Davis, Tony McNamara
“First Reformed,” Paul Schrader
“Green Book,” Nick Vallelonga, Brian Currie, Peter Farrelly
“Roma,” Alfonso Cuarón
“Vice,” Adam McKay

Cinematography
“Cold War,” Lukasz Zal
“The Favourite,” Robbie Ryan
“Never Look Away,” Caleb Deschanel
“Roma,” Alfonso Cuarón
“A Star Is Born,” Matthew Libatique

Film Editing
“BlacKkKlansman,” Barry Alexander Brown
“Bohemian Rhapsody,” John Ottman
“Green Book,” Patrick J. Don Vito
“The Favourite,” Yorgos Mavropsaridis
“Vice,” Hank Corwin
 
Honestly, Black Panther shouldn't be nominated. It's a standard action movie - a very good one - but really, it doesn't belong there. The fact that none of the actors or director were nominated at all is telling.

Mary Poppins should win for Costume Design and Production Design, which were both amazing! I don't think they picked it's strongest song, but I hope it wins that too.
 
And in today's other news...The DIS fans have spoken, and I am proud to unveil the nominees for the first ever Disney Oscars! A full list of nominations is below. Due to a tie for fifth place, we have 6 nominees in the Best Supporting Actress category. Thank you all for taking part in this little endeavor. After you read the list of nominations, click on the link to vote for who you think should win. (I will continue to use the preferential ballot for the Best Disney Film category, so please rank the nominees from 1-5, with #1 being your top choice). Winners will be announced the day before the Oscars: February 23rd. And the nominees are...


BEST DISNEY FILM
Avengers: Infinity War
Black Panther
Incredibles 2
Mary Poppins Returns
Solo: A Star Wars Story

BEST DIRECTOR
Avengers: Infinity War (Anthony & Joe Russo)
Black Panther (Ryan Coogler)
Incredibles 2 (Brad Bird)
Mary Poppins Returns (Rob Marshall)
Ralph Breaks the Internet (Phil Johnston & Rich Moore)

BEST SCREENPLAY
Avengers: Infinity War (Christopher Markus & Stephen McFeely)
Bao (Domee Shi)
Black Panther (Ryan Coogler & Joe Robert Cole)
Mary Poppins Returns (David Magee)
Ralph Breaks the Internet (Phil Johnston & Pamela Ribon)

BEST LEAD ACTOR
Chadwick Boseman, Black Panther (T’Challa)
Alden Ehrenreich, Solo: A Star Wars Story (Han Solo)
Lin-Manuel Miranda, Mary Poppins Returns (Jack)

BEST LEAD ACTRESS
Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns (Mary Poppins)
Emilia Clarke, Solo: A Star Wars Story (Qi’ra)
Evangeline Lily, Ant-Man and the Wasp (Hope van Dyne)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Josh Brolin, Avengers: Infinity War (Thanos)
Woody Harrelson, Solo: A Star Wars Story (Beckett)
Tom Holland, Avengers: Infinity War (Spider-Man)
Michael B. Jordan, Black Panther (Killmonger)
Ben Wishaw, Mary Poppins Returns (Michael Banks)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Danai Gurira, Black Panther (Okoye)
Angela Lansbury, Mary Poppins Returns (The Balloon Lady)
Emily Mortimer, Mary Poppins Returns (Jane Banks)
Elizabeth Olsen, Avengers: Infinity War (Scarlet Witch)
Zoe Saldana, Avengers: Infinity War (Gamora)
Letitia Wright, Black Panther (Shuri)

BEST VOICE OVER PERFORMANCE
Brad Bird, Incredibles 2 (Edna Mode)
Jim Cummings, Christopher Robin (Winnie the Pooh/Tigger)
Holly Hunter, Incredibles 2 (Elastigirl)
Ross Marquand, Avengers: Infinity War (Red Skull)
Craig T. Nelson, Incredibles 2 (Mr. Incredible)

Nomination Tallies
8 - Avengers: Infinity War
8 - Mary Poppins Returns
7 - Black Panther
5 - Incredibles 2
4 - Solo: A Star Wars Story
2 - Ralph Breaks the Internet
1 - Ant-Man and The Wasp
1 - Bao
1 - Christopher Robin

Cast your ballot for the winners here:
https://www.surveymonkey.com/r/GDXV69K
 


Honestly, Black Panther shouldn't be nominated. It's a standard action movie - a very good one - but really, it doesn't belong there. The fact that none of the actors or director were nominated at all is telling.

Mary Poppins should win for Costume Design and Production Design, which were both amazing! I don't think they picked it's strongest song, but I hope it wins that too.


I'm honestly relieved to see something break up the usual drama movies you expect to see on the list. It seems like the Academy is catch up with popular opinion and giving other genres a shot.
 
Honestly, Black Panther shouldn't be nominated. It's a standard action movie - a very good one - but really, it doesn't belong there. The fact that none of the actors or director were nominated at all is telling.

Mary Poppins should win for Costume Design and Production Design, which were both amazing! I don't think they picked it's strongest song, but I hope it wins that too.

I personally loved Black Panther, and I'd agree with fitzherbert2 above that at least the Academy is diversifying the types of movies in the Best Picture lineup. No superhero movie has ever contended for Best Picture before. This shift seems to be a result of the rapid changes they have made to the membership over the past 3 years. Academy members were always overwhelmingly in the same demographic, for many years consisting of 80%+ old straight white men. That, combined with precursor awards, made predicting nominees/winners easier since you could always think about what that group would prefer. But the same types of movies usually won/were nominated, and certain genres were routinely left out in the cold no matter how good they were.

Brian, one thing that always affects my view of the race is the massive amounts of hype these films receive before most of the general public even gets to see them. For instance, I was lucky enough to be invited to the first press screening for Black Panther. And the theater was electric. Going in with absolutely no preconceived notion about the quality or story, I was blown away. But by the time it was released, so many critics and industry members had lobbed so much heavy praise at it, expectations were unreasonably high for many. I had your experience with Roma. I didn't see it until the Netflix release, after months of hearing it was a gift from god from countless critics and pundits. And truth be told, I was quite let down (apart from the absolutely stunning cinematography) and even bored in parts. A good movie, but one deserving of all these nominations? And potential BP win? The hype set my expectations through the roof. I am intrigued to let the season be over, not think about Roma for a while, and watch it maybe a year or so from now without hype surrounding it to see if I feel differently. Maybe if you give Black Panther a second look after some time away from the hype machine, you'll feel differently. Or not! Movies and art will always be subjective, that's the beautiful thing about them, how they affect all of us differently. But no matter what the opinion is of the quality of Black Panther, I am absolutely excited for what it means in terms of what kinds of films now have a chance to compete for Oscars.
 
I personally loved Black Panther, and I'd agree with fitzherbert2 above that at least the Academy is diversifying the types of movies in the Best Picture lineup. No superhero movie has ever contended for Best Picture before. This shift seems to be a result of the rapid changes they have made to the membership over the past 3 years. Academy members were always overwhelmingly in the same demographic, for many years consisting of 80%+ old straight white men. That, combined with precursor awards, made predicting nominees/winners easier since you could always think about what that group would prefer. But the same types of movies usually won/were nominated, and certain genres were routinely left out in the cold no matter how good they were.

Brian, one thing that always affects my view of the race is the massive amounts of hype these films receive before most of the general public even gets to see them. For instance, I was lucky enough to be invited to the first press screening for Black Panther. And the theater was electric. Going in with absolutely no preconceived notion about the quality or story, I was blown away. But by the time it was released, so many critics and industry members had lobbed so much heavy praise at it, expectations were unreasonably high for many. I had your experience with Roma. I didn't see it until the Netflix release, after months of hearing it was a gift from god from countless critics and pundits. And truth be told, I was quite let down (apart from the absolutely stunning cinematography) and even bored in parts. A good movie, but one deserving of all these nominations? And potential BP win? The hype set my expectations through the roof. I am intrigued to let the season be over, not think about Roma for a while, and watch it maybe a year or so from now without hype surrounding it to see if I feel differently. Maybe if you give Black Panther a second look after some time away from the hype machine, you'll feel differently. Or not! Movies and art will always be subjective, that's the beautiful thing about them, how they affect all of us differently. But no matter what the opinion is of the quality of Black Panther, I am absolutely excited for what it means in terms of what kinds of films now have a chance to compete for Oscars.

Hey, look I loved Black Panther, as I have all the Marvel movies. I am a big fan! That said, it wasn't even the best "superhero" movie last year, nor action movie. It was great, sure. I was there opening night (as I am for all Marvel Movies) and it was a lot of fun. For me, it's in the middle of the pack as far as Marvel movies go, due to some minor pacing issues, something I feel most of today's blockbusters fall prey to. I just really don't see it as deserving of a nomination for Best Picture. It was a pretty routine Marvel flick. Infinity War was more of a standout and deserves more praise, though my favorite superhero film of the year was Ant-Man & Wasp. I wouldn't nominate any of them for Best Picture though.
 


was...was the Grinch nominated?

NOTHING from Illumination Studios should be anywhere near this.
 
The Favourite was good and will win. Lady Gaga for star is born won't win . But wow that was amazing acting
 
Emma Stone got a well deserved Oscar for her performance in 'The Favourite' Wow she has some range. From La La Land to this. What a range
 
SAG winners were unveiled last night, and its great news for Disney/Marvel fans! Here's the film winners:

Best Ensemble: Black Panther
Lead Actor: Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody
Lead Actress: Glenn Close, The Wife
Supporting Actor: Mahershala Ali, Green Book
Supporting Actress: Emily Blunt, A Quiet Place
Stunt Ensemble: Black Panther

Lead Actor, Lead Actress, and Supporting Actor are beginning to feel like done deals. Close, Malek, and Ali are probably your Oscar winners. There's a chance that the Brits could favor one of their own and go for Colman over Close at BAFTA. But I still think Close's narrative is too strong for Oscar voters to ignore.

I'm thrilled that Blunt took supporting actress. She had an incredible year and deserved an Oscar nom for at least one of her roles. This is also the end of the line for her in awards season since she was snubbed by BAFTA and Oscar. I feel like this was best case scenario for Regina King, who will try to keep her frontrunner status at the Oscars despite her SAG and BAFTA snubs. Blunt isnt in contention at the Oscars, and SAG was Amy Adams' best chance for a win. BAFTA will probably go for Weisz making her a serious threat, but she could split votes with co-star Stone come Oscar time.

Black Panther became the first film to ever win both Ensemble and Stunt Ensemble at the SAG awards. Clearly it was very popular with SAG voters. Does this help it win Best Picture at the Oscars? Well, it surely doesn't hurt. But I still have a very hard time seeing a film with no director, screenplay, acting, or editing nominations claiming the top prize. I expected BlacKkKlansman to win the Ensemble prize at SAG, and I think its loss puts a damper on its Best Picture chances. It needs to win a big industry award, not just critics prizes. From the industry/guild awards, the Spike Lee film will probably only claim the WGA (I expect Lee to lose DGA to Cuaron, it's already lost PGA to Green Book). But this paints a crazy picture because the main guilds will all point in different directions: SAG = Black Panther, PGA = Green Book, DGA = TBA (but likely Cuaron/Roma), WGA = TBA (but likely BlacKkKlansman in adapted and Roma or Green Book in original).

Which of those prevails? Hard to say in such a split year, absolutely one of the most unpredictable Oscar races Ive ever seen. But for now I've switched back to Roma in the lead. Netflix is spending millions of dollars pushing this thing. And in a year when the Academy nominated tons of popular films, it allows them to say "see we broadened our horizons" while still incorporating some snob appeal in their winner. And they can show that they will embrace streaming platforms, but on their own terms (with a director they love, for a film with massive artistic merit). My Best Picture rankings by odds of winning:

1. Roma
2. BlacKkKlansman
3. Green Book
4. Black Panther
5. The Favourite
6. A Star is Born
7. Vice
8. Bohemian Rhapsody

What do you think is ahead?

And don't forget to cast your ballot in the Disney Oscars!
https://www.surveymonkey.com/r/GDXV69K
 
SAG winners were unveiled last night, and its great news for Disney/Marvel fans! Here's the film winners:

Best Ensemble: Black Panther
Lead Actor: Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody
Lead Actress: Glenn Close, The Wife
Supporting Actor: Mahershala Ali, Green Book
Supporting Actress: Emily Blunt, A Quiet Place
Stunt Ensemble: Black Panther

Lead Actor, Lead Actress, and Supporting Actor are beginning to feel like done deals. Close, Malek, and Ali are probably your Oscar winners. There's a chance that the Brits could favor one of their own and go for Colman over Close at BAFTA. But I still think Close's narrative is too strong for Oscar voters to ignore.

I'm thrilled that Blunt took supporting actress. She had an incredible year and deserved an Oscar nom for at least one of her roles. This is also the end of the line for her in awards season since she was snubbed by BAFTA and Oscar. I feel like this was best case scenario for Regina King, who will try to keep her frontrunner status at the Oscars despite her SAG and BAFTA snubs. Blunt isnt in contention at the Oscars, and SAG was Amy Adams' best chance for a win. BAFTA will probably go for Weisz making her a serious threat, but she could split votes with co-star Stone come Oscar time.

Black Panther became the first film to ever win both Ensemble and Stunt Ensemble at the SAG awards. Clearly it was very popular with SAG voters. Does this help it win Best Picture at the Oscars? Well, it surely doesn't hurt. But I still have a very hard time seeing a film with no director, screenplay, acting, or editing nominations claiming the top prize. I expected BlacKkKlansman to win the Ensemble prize at SAG, and I think its loss puts a damper on its Best Picture chances. It needs to win a big industry award, not just critics prizes. From the industry/guild awards, the Spike Lee film will probably only claim the WGA (I expect Lee to lose DGA to Cuaron, it's already lost PGA to Green Book). But this paints a crazy picture because the main guilds will all point in different directions: SAG = Black Panther, PGA = Green Book, DGA = TBA (but likely Cuaron/Roma), WGA = TBA (but likely BlacKkKlansman in adapted and Roma or Green Book in original).

Which of those prevails? Hard to say in such a split year, absolutely one of the most unpredictable Oscar races Ive ever seen. But for now I've switched back to Roma in the lead. Netflix is spending millions of dollars pushing this thing. And in a year when the Academy nominated tons of popular films, it allows them to say "see we broadened our horizons" while still incorporating some snob appeal in their winner. And they can show that they will embrace streaming platforms, but on their own terms (with a director they love, for a film with massive artistic merit). My Best Picture rankings by odds of winning:

1. Roma
2. BlacKkKlansman
3. Green Book
4. Black Panther
5. The Favourite
6. A Star is Born
7. Vice
8. Bohemian Rhapsody

What do you think is ahead?

And don't forget to cast your ballot in the Disney Oscars!
https://www.surveymonkey.com/r/GDXV69K

Thanks for the update! I think this will make an exciting show. The only film I haven't seen is Bohemian Rhapsody. I kept meaning to, but then I heard rumors that Malek's acting was great and so was the ending, just not the rest of the film. I liked Roma. It just wasn't my favorite. It seems more like what the academy normally selects.
 
I've been traveling for a bit, but plenty happened in Oscar-land while I was gone.

The DGA announced their winners, and Alfonso Cuaron took home this important guild award for Roma. There was some chatter about Spike Lee possibly pulling off an upset, but Cuaron looks locked for this Oscar category.

The Visual Effects Society (VES) announced their winners as well. Avengers: Infinity War dominated their live-action categories (including a character award for the creation of Thanos and the guild's top Best Effects category), while Spiderman: Into the Spider-Verse cleaned up in their animated categories. In addition, First Man took home a trophy for supporting visual effects and Ready Player One took home 2 trophies (1 for created environment [Overlook Hotel sequence] and the other for virtual cinematography [opening car chase sequence]). Infinity War looks poised as the Oscar frontrunner, but I am skeptical of the Academy giving a win to this movie. I just keep being reminded of when the 2nd and 3rd Planet of the Apes films dominated this guild, only to lose the Oscar to Interstellar and Blade Runner 2049. The two films that won had bigger Oscar campaigns and were in the Best Picture conversation, though they ultimately missed that category. So I have a hunch First Man can still swoop in for a win because it has more snob appeal than Avengers.

ACE gave out their "Eddie" awards too. (It's the Film Editors guild). They have two top editing categories, with The Favourite taking Comedy Editing and Bohemian Rhapsody taking Drama Editing.

The BAFTA awards also held their ceremony (basically the British Oscars). They have a spotty record of predicting the Oscar, but they do have over 500 voters whoa re also Academy members. The Favourite claimed 7 awards (including Lead and Supporting Actress) and looked poised for a Picture win, but Roma surprised with Best Picture (in addition to Director, Cinematography, and Foreign Language Film). They dont use a preferential ballot vote, but if even the Brits cant give The Favourite Best Picture I think its chances for a win there at the Oscars are dead.

So. The Oscar is truly up for grabs. All the guilds point in different directions:

PGA: Green Book
DGA: Roma
SAG: Black Panther
ACE Comedy: The Favourite
ACE Drama: Bohemian Rhapsody

The major guild we are waiting on is the writers guild, but they might not help.

WGA Adapted: likely to go to BlacKkKlansman (Lee just picked up a BAFTA for this category)
WGA Original: Toss up race between Green Book, Vice, and Roma. (The Favourite was ineligible for nomination here)

In recent years, Best Picture has been tied to screenplay, more so than director. Spotlight took Picture and Screenplay and thats it. Moonlight had Picture, Screenplay, and Supporting Actor. 12 Years a Slave had just Picture, Screenplay, and Supporting Actress. Nowadays you only need one or two big wins to take Best Picture. So could BlacKkKlansman win on a preferential ballot with only Best Picture and Adapted Screenplay as its two Oscar wins? Yes it could. Smart money is still on Roma. But I still wonder why it didn't win PGA. They vote the same way as the Oscars and Green Book bested it. Also, no foreign language film has ever won Best Picture. It's also in black and white and from Netflix. But Netflix is running what is reportedly the most expensive awards campaign ever. and people have deemed it a masterpiece. Green Book is the type of feel good movie they love to choose, and has already won on a preferential vote. But it has had an unbelievable amount of mud thrown at it (its been accused of having a white savior complex, having historical inaccuracies, and came under fire for pas unseemly behavior and tweets from the director and writer, respectively). Word is that many voters arent really listening to the smear campaigns. But...it also doesnt have a director nomination. As we saw last year, no director nom plus controversy equals Oscar loss (Three Billboards). I'm betting on Roma for the moment still, but Im expecting something crazy to happen.

My current odds:
1. Roma
2. Green Book
3. BlacKkKlansman
4. Black Panther
5. The Favourite
6. Bohemian Rhapsody
7. A Star is Born
8. Vice
 
This race is crazy, y'all!

The Writer's Guild (WGA) announced their winners and things did NOT go according to plan.

Original Screenplay: Eighth Grade
Adapted Screenplay: Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Wow. Neither film is nominated for Best Picture at the Oscars (indeed, Eighth Grade sadly isnt nominated for a single academy award. Shame on them, see it if you havent. It's a beautiful film). This puts the race even more up in the air.
Based on conversations with industry folks, I still think Spike Lee is out front for Adapted Screenplay for BlacKkKlansman. It makes sense that Can You Ever Forgive Me took the WGA, even if its a huge surprise. Its a movie ABOUT a writer, it even has a typewriter on the cover! But BlacKklansman is the Picture nominee and this is the one place where they can guarantee it a win, and more importantly guarantee Spike Lee his first ever oscar win.

Original screenplay...who knows at this point. The Favourite was not eligible for WGA, which means that Green Book should have been able to capitulate on its front runner status for a win here. Did the writer's past controversial tweets hold people back from rewarding him? Perhaps. But just as likely is that its an insanely competitive field and votes were spread thin (other Best Pic nominees Roma and Vice are also in contention). Green Book still has a shot at the Oscar, but I expect this vote to be very very close (Paul Schrader is also an Oscar nominee here for First Reformed. And he has never won despite being the scribe for classics like Chinatown). But The Favourite, with its BAFTA win, is starting to look like a good option here. It's dialogue heavy, filled with witty banter, and original in delivery. But this category is going to be a true mystery until the envelope is opened.


Bohemian Rhapsody had a great couple days as well. It picked up two guild awards: The sound editors gave it best sound editing (dialogue/adr). Then the Cinema Audio society gave it Best Sound Mixing. With Rami Malek looking like a lock for Best Actor, could Bohemian Rhapsody clean up nearly all of its nominations?

At this point, it looks solid for Sound Mixing. Music driven films do well here, the final live aid sequence has a stunning mix, and its closest competition (A Star is Born) has faded in terms of buzz.
The sound editors guild has an additional effects/Foley award, which went to A Quiet Place. That's also nominated at the Oscars, but is the sole nomination for that movie, making a win much more difficult. BR could take Sound Editing at the Oscars...but I have a hunch Black Panther or First Man could still upset there. Action movies and War movies do very well in this category (like previous winners Dunkirk, Mad Max, Skyfall, Zero Dark Thirty, Gravity, American Sniper), while popular music driven films (La La Land, Baby Driver) have failed to win.

ALSO! Don't forget to vote for the Disney Oscars! There are some EXTREMELY close races. So your vote could determine whether your fav film wins or loses. Share with your Disney friends =)
https://www.surveymonkey.com/r/GDXV69K
 
Well, that's a wrap! The Oscar season is over. Green Book was ultimately declared Best Picture, which I think is another strong indicator of how important #2 and #3 votes are on the preferential ballot. Ultimately I got 17 out of 24 categories correct with my personal predictions. I'm super happy I stuck with Black Panther for design categories and score when other prognosticators drifted to The Favourite and BlackKklansman. I'm devastated for Glenn Close, who looked glorious, like an Oscar statue come to life with an epic gold cape. She was sublime in The Wife, and now still holds her record for most acting losses without a win at 7. Sigh. It's also bizarre that Bohemian Rhapsody has the most wins of the night...yikes. And as much as I love Disney, I'm absolutely thrilled for Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse with its Animated Feature win. It's a stunning film that deserved even more nominations, and frankly even a Best Picture nomination.

Mary Poppins Returns ultimately came up empty handed, but Disney did better than some pundits expected

Black Panther - 3 Wins
Costume Design (Ruth E. Carter)
Production Design (Hannah Beachler & Jay Hart)
Original Score (Ludwig Goransson)

Bao - 1 Win
Animated Short (Domee Shi & Becky Neiman)

Fun Facts:
Black Panther became the first MCU film to win an Oscar
Ruth Carter became the first black woman to win for Costume Design
Hannah Beachler became the first black person to be nominated, and win, for Production Design


AND I have to announce the winners of the first ever Disney Oscars! (I know I said I would do it yesterday, but I became swamped with my actual job covering the awards and didnt have time to post here. My apologies).

The people have spoken. And the winners are:

Best Disney Film
Black Panther

Best Director
Ryan Coogler, Black Panther

Best Screenplay
Ryan Coogler & Joe Robert Cole, Black Panther

Best Lead Actress
Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns

Best Lead Actor
Chadwick Boseman, Black Panther

Best Supporting Actress (TIE!)
Danai Gurira, Black Panther
Letitia Wright, Black Panther

Best Supporting Actor
Ben Wishaw, Mary Poppins Returns

Best Voice Over Performance
Jim Cummings, Christopher Robin

What did you think of the Oscars, and our own Disney Oscars? Did your favorites win?
 
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