Cruise and Theme Park Operational Updates due to Coronavirus

[dtrain]

If they open too soon and there's an outbreak in the parks, people will relentlessly bash Disney for not waiting until it was safe. If they make a statement saying the parks will remain closed until 2021, people will bash Disney for being overly cautious and not opening for the Holidays. It really is a no win situation for them right now.

In my opinion, the smart play is to shut it down for the rest of the year.

 

[xuxa777]

If they open too soon and there's an outbreak in the parks, people will relentlessly bash Disney for not waiting until it was safe. If they make a statement saying the parks will remain closed until 2021, people will bash Disney for being overly cautious and not opening for the Holidays. It really is a no win situation for them right now.

In my opinion, the smart play is to shut it down for the rest of the year.

That will be quite the opposite of a smart play. Making that decision now would be reckless and a very bad business move.

 

[jamescanuck2001]

Fact is, tomorrow there may be an announcement of a $10 test kit that can test for the presence of the virus, or antibodies. Which, after mass production and distribution of the kits, would allow for isolation of the infected to a reasonable level of accuracy (reducing the fatality risk to similar to other communicable diseases).

Given this, Disney has no choice but to continue to book rooms and packages, on the chance that a resolution to the matter will come soon. They certainly do not want to see a resolution come, and nothing has been booked!

Smart money, though, is no Disney for months yet

 

[xuxa777]

....

Smart money, though, is no Disney for months yet

While I don't know about how smart Wall Street is but judging from last week they are generally thinking sooner than later

 

[jamescanuck2001]

While I don't know about how smart Wall Street is but judging from last week they are generally thinking sooner than later

Going by history, not very smart. I wouldn't consider Wall Street actions as indicative of anything wrt Disney Parks.

 

[xuxa777]

Going by history, not very smart. I wouldn't consider Wall Street actions as indicative of anything wrt Disney Parks.

, at least they are putting money on the line with their opinion.

 

[anthony2k7]

It’s very possible the first test was faulty.

And the 2nd? Two negative tests are required by WHO guidelines to be classed as recovered.

 

[choirfarm]

That's the optimism we need!!!!

Optimism is ok. We don't know, but optimism that leads to dangerous actions for others can be deadly. I cannot wish the sun to shine.

 

[Kadorto]

Fact is, tomorrow there may be an announcement of a $10 test kit that can test for the presence of the virus, or antibodies. Which, after mass production and distribution of the kits, would allow for isolation of the infected to a reasonable level of accuracy (reducing the fatality risk to similar to other communicable diseases).

Given this, Disney has no choice but to continue to book rooms and packages, on the chance that a resolution to the matter will come soon. They certainly do not want to see a resolution come, and nothing has been booked!

Smart money, though, is no Disney for months yet

Well.. as a Disney shareholder, I like to think of myself as smart money. I still believe we're on track for a June opening, maybe a bit earlier.

 

[WeatherLights]

With all due respect, I understand how Disney works and I do know that they need money and will hold on to as much of it as they can, but I also really think they want to open as soon as it is safe and will be profitable to do so.

Edited to add:
I don’t have any insider connections etc. Just a guess like everyone else. I also don’t think Disney likes angering (and potentially alienating their customers) and refunding loads of money if they can help it.

The profitable part is, in my opinion, also going to be very important in determining a re-opening date. If the need for social distancing continues, and businesses can only "safely" open if certain distancing measures are implemented, it might not be profitable for Disneyworld to open any time soon. Their profits come from packing people in!

Anyone on this board have a good estimate of the average attendance numbers and average spend per person per day? We could then do some back of the envelope math to see how much Disney would need to charge per person if they limited attendance by, for example, 50% or 75%.

 

[aibo]

Dr. Anthony Fauci hope it will be safe to vote i November, i say wash hands, read a good book, be kind to your family and friends. Sitt still in the boat.

 

[Runnsally]

Dr. Anthony Fauci hope it will be safe to vote i November, i say wash hands, read a good book, be kind to your family and friends. Sitt still in the boat.

Finally some clarity.

 

[dynastyyanks]

Well if this is all so set in stone as you suggest and any trips scheduled prior to July are definitely not going to happen and we are quickly progressing into August, it would be nice if Disney would share this info with the consumers, stop allowing them to book trips during those time frames and stop holding the money hostage of those who have. I mean if it’s all so set in stone...

They’ve done this before though, when they were accepting reservations for April 1st until the last days of March. There are a lot of advantages to them for doing it this way. It allows them to be more reactive to the to present state of the virus, which with projections swinging significantly week to week now is a necessity. Plus, it drastically reduces the stress on their phone lines that a long term cancellation would cause. Definitely annoying for us, but I wouldn’t put a ton of stock into when they are accepting reservations.

 

[Jroceagles]

Optimism is ok. We don't know, but optimism that leads to dangerous actions for others can be deadly. I cannot wish the sun to shine.

I can!

 

[juice0358]

Well.. as a Disney shareholder, I like to think of myself as smart money. I still believe we're on track for a June opening, maybe a bit earlier.

How will they open before June? They just agreed to furlough their service workers, Universal has announced they will be closed until June 1 st. What from this points to you thinking they will ramp everything up before June?

 

[WonderlandisReality]

Truly curious. What signs, outside of an outright announcement, would we see for an opening? For example if they were to open on June 1 by what date would we see increased CM activity at the parks and/or resorts. And by extension if it would take X amount of time from an increase in activity to open can we use that as a reliable benchmark to be on the lookout for?

 

[jknezek]

Truly curious. What signs, outside of an outright announcement, would we see for an opening? For example if they were to open on June 1 by what date would we see increased CM activity at the parks and/or resorts. And by extension if it would take X amount of time from an increase in activity to open can we use that as a reliable benchmark to be on the lookout for?

For parks I'd say 3-6 weeks minimum to hire people back, get food and supplies delivered. Restart and check ride mechanisms. Give everything a polish and work out the procedure adjustments they will have to make for virus mitigation and cast worker and employee safety.

For resorts and restaurants 1-3 weeks. Mostly hiring people back and getting supplies back in.

 

[Redhead5]

Just because Disney is taking reservations starting June 1st means nothing. Any company as big as Disney has to continue to plan in case they can open but it doesn't mean they will.

 

[yankeesfan123]

Truly curious. What signs, outside of an outright announcement, would we see for an opening? For example if they were to open on June 1 by what date would we see increased CM activity at the parks and/or resorts. And by extension if it would take X amount of time from an increase in activity to open can we use that as a reliable benchmark to be on the lookout for?

Great question! I’d expect to see college program workers NOT be canceled and actually head down at least a few weeks before opening. With social media, we’d all know if that was occurring. Just like we know the CP employees for 6/1 were canceled.

I’d also expect to see Disney construction in parks occurring for quite some time before parks opening. If a dozen painters aren’t even there painting the castle, I don’t think they’d have 50,000 guests in the MK.
I also think if the actual parks are opening, we’d have official notice at least a month ahead of time.

just guesses though

 

[Mzpalmtree]

They’ve done this before though, when they were accepting reservations for April 1st until the last days of March. There are a lot of advantages to them for doing it this way. It allows them to be more reactive to the to present state of the virus, which with projections swinging significantly week to week now is a necessity. Plus, it drastically reduces the stress on their phone lines that a long term cancellation would cause. Definitely annoying for us, but I wouldn’t put a ton of stock into when they are accepting reservations.

I don’t want to keep having this argument because everyone is going to believe what they want, but when they closed on March 16, they had to have time to come up with a plan. Yes, I know they were still selling rooms, etc for dates they were probably sure they could not keep, however, I think they were trying to come up with an announcement of what they could do before they took a stance on what happened after April 1–at this point we were working within less than a two week time frame. Then they stopped selling rooms, etc until after June 1. What the previous poster stated was that Disney KNOWS they will not open until July or probably August and that there is no possibility that it will be sooner. That implies that any rooms etc being sold for June (which is still a month and a half out—not two weeks) are being sold pretty far in advance with no plans to be fulfilled. I am sorry but I would like to think they wouldn’t do that if they didn’t think there was even a remote possibility that they could fulfill them in some fashion. I think there is a big difference between what happened with April and what is being implied is happening now. I’m not saying they wouldn’t do it, what I’m saying is that I’d like to THINK they wouldn’t. Take it as you will, but I’m entitled to my opinion as anyone else.