I think there are a number of assumptions being made here that I would disagree with. The largest one is that today, buying direct, much like purchasing a car, loses a very high percentage out the gate. Many of these resorts are at a 30-40% loss immediately. Now consider the value of the direct contract with the new dvc2 restrictions. Resale of new properties like RIV will most likely be less appealing in comparison to any original 14 resorts, even after the number of resorts dwindles, as being able to book at anything other than one resort provides more flexibility.
You're also not considering that the average dvc owner holds their contact for 8 years, making this conversation much less relevant for the near future.
As for renting, people will always want discounted deluxe offerings at Disney. So aside from non-wdw resorts, I see no concern or impact with being able to rent points ever.
The blue card perks just will never make up for the immediate depreciation of the contract, unless some significant discount is offered or booking advantage is introduced.
Blue card perks has nothing to do with the analysis above. I think they’re irrelevant and distracting from how people should think about direct vs resale, and I think DVC marketing has us focusing on the short term vs the longer term because of this.
Blue card PERKS only matters if you need something it’s currently offering for the next 3 years. If you don’t want those things, it’s fluff. Fun fluff, but fluff.
Blue card = Flexibility is what I’ve been chewing over.
What is the value of the continued flexibility of your $$$ spent extra direct, if you are planning to HOLD that contract.
You have to roll up to the downstream impact of personal behaviors/needs when purchasing. To me THIS is the bigger impact of the changes when considering resale/direct, on IF it matter to each buyer.
For example - I did consider the 8 yr hold for a contract in #2 (& #1 by default). People who are buying for the “now”, intending to sell if the end up done withDisney. For those people resale is the safe bet.
And renting - especially after 2042...but the impact will (slowly) hit as RIV resale starts - the ability to do this easily, by having the flexibility of multiple resorts to meet reservation needs goes away. People like to talk about this as a failsafe for holding these contracts if you can’t use it. This won’t hold for resale when I consider the bottlenecks/pressure Disney is building into the system.
It won’t be that people won’t WANT to rent, it will be much harder for the owner TO DELIVER that full week reservation.
If I look at it as a whole by 2042 and what age the buyer of today will be at that time ((personal to each person’s current age)) - Best use for resale will become point transfers, essentially locking you & I out of the people looking for cash rooms, and keeping DVC with DVC, and cash buyer with Disney.
This is exactly part of why Disney I bet is doing this - you won’t be able to easily undercut the rack rates, all while your MF pays for the upkeep, resale buyer or direct buyer. And the current giant rental companies will see a lot more work to undercut Disney. And those rental companies will pass that FTE work to rent our points onto us etc etc etc.
Everyone should buy for how it best works for them. For better or worse, DVC is altering the business model with 2.0 and that does change it in some interesting ways for the younger buyers that has nothing to do with perks.